Speaker has the power – now use it

There were strong hints of the Biblical Judgment of Solomon in the findings of the Constitutional Court, delivered by Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng yesterday on the method of voting in the looming parliamentary vote of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma.

Without prescribing that the vote be either open or a secret ballot, Mogoeng effectively placed the onus on Speaker Baleka Mbete’s conscience.

“The speaker of the National Assembly has constitutional power to prescribe that voting in a motion of no confidence in the president be conducted by secret ballot,” the chief justice said, effectively overturning the speaker’s earlier statements that she did not have this power.

The case, brought by the country’s opposition parties, neatly places Mbete between the rock of where the speaker’s loyalties lie and the hard place of the ANC’s solidarity – a factor used by ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe to pull members back into line at the recent meeting of the party’s national executive committee to stave of a proposed threat to Zuma.

“Whether the proceedings are to be by secret ballot is a power that rests firmly in the hands of the speaker, but exercisable subject to crucial factors that are appropriately seasoned with consideration of rationality,” said Mogoeng.

The judgment also effectively tests the combined consciences of the elected members of the National Assembly to produce an equitable answer. If Mbete’s decision is to revert to her original ruling that the motion be voted on in the open, it is highly unlikely to succeed.

It would need around 70 ANC MPs, all earning at least R1 million annually, to defy any party whip to the contrary and vote against the president. Zuma has a history of purging dissident voices.

But if the decision is that the vote be a secret one, there is a chance that the motion could just succeed where similar votes have signally failed in the past.