South Africa can live without Trump

US President Donald Trump so hates Brics and so despises China that he looks for every opportunity to attack both – despite China repeatedly stating its doesn’t want a conflict with the US, but for the two economic superpowers to work together for a better world.

As the saying goes, when two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers. Now, South Africa is caught in the middle of this tussle.

Trump has dragged us into it, envying the trade between China and South Africa and their significant roles in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (Brics) economic forum. Our trade relations with China, which long overtook the US as a focal point of international trade, gives Trump sleepless nights.

But how did China-South Africa relations began? While the relationship with the ANC goes far back, diplomatic and trade relations between the two countries began after 1994, when South Africa obtained its democracy.

Unlike the West, China refused to enter South Africa before 1994, in solidarity with the black struggle against white apartheid rule.

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The friendship originated from the One China Policy, which established that there is but one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing all of China.

This stance was also supported by the US and the entire Western world. So, South Africa has done nothing to deserve to be told by Trump who to trade and make friends with.

In fact, Trump is falling behind because the entire world, including Europe, is shifting its focus east for trade. Trump is currently antagonising Europe, pushing them to the arms of China and Russia as new trading allies, all while the US Empire crumbles before our eyes.

A senior colleague put it so eloquently: “Trump has no idea of the law of unintended consequences. He’s been alienating enemies and allies everywhere and Brics is almost at that stage where it can say to hell with the US – at least in terms of trade, much more of a problem is the dollar.”

In the same vein, Soweto-born independent political analyst Sandile Swana argues that SA does not need the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) for trade. It could live doing business with China and the European Union as its top two major trading partners.

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Recently, Goolam Ballim, the chief economist at Standard Bank Group, said world trade routes are gravitating towards China, rather than the US. This, to me, suggests that any country unwilling to engage in trade with China may find itself at a disadvantage. It seems Trump is not grasping this message.

Rather than retreating, in response to Washington’s pressure, South Africa should focus on strengthening its trade ties with China, particularly in the manufacturing sector, and with the EU and Africa via the African Continent Free Trade Area.

Currently, SA primarily exports raw materials and primary goods to China while importing mostly manufactured consumer products and capital goods. President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighted this as one area that needs improvement.

Ramaphosa wrote in a weekly newsletter: “China is our largest trading partner, having overtaken the European Union in 2023. However, there is an imbalance in the structure of our trade.”

He indicated that the two countries are working on this and that Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his support for the development of South Africa’s manufacturing capacity.

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“President Xi has committed China to open its markets to more South African products and would seek to further broaden the frontiers for Chinese investment in the SA economy.”