SA politics will never be boring

As experts, analysts and journalists project the outcome of our just-completed elections, they should remember the old saying: “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings…”

At the time of going to press, with many results – including from heavily populated voting districts – still outstanding, there was no concrete sign the diva was even warming herself up to deliver the final election aria.

That being said, though, it can be interesting – entertaining even – to indulge in a little speculating, based on the latest trends in the national and regional results.

The ruling ANC seems stuck at less than the 50% plus one majority – as many predicted. But, let’s not write off a Lazarus-like recovery, either. The Democratic Alliance looks set to be the official opposition again, although some way from being able to storm Union Buildings.

The real story of these elections is in the lower ranks.

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Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has done better than any newbie party in our democracy – but still some way from achieving the two-thirds its leaders believe it is entitled to.

Similarly, Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance (PA) has made massive gains across the country. Jointly, MK and the PA are – whether some like it or not – changing the face of South African politics.

Both have a strong ethnic appeal – MK’s to Zulu people and PA’s to coloured communities.

This is worrying, because the last thing we need in this country at this fragile time is a step back to the politics of identity.

Then there is the Economic Freedom Fighters, which at the early stages seemed to be losing or, at least not gaining, votes.

That is not because their populist politics have lost their appeal, it’s because other players, like MK, have even more extreme positions. Here is our final prediction: South African politics will never be boring…

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