SA needs the thin blue line

The government of national unity (GNU) is a political paradox. The party that values it the least, the ANC, objectively needs it most.

Whereas the DA, the party that is emotionally most committed, on balance, needs it least.

The GNU has been a chastening experience for the DA. It’s been manipulated, abused and betrayed. Were the DA now to leave, the ripple effects on South Africa Inc would be serious.

For the DA itself, however, it would be just a reversion to the status quo, that of being the official opposition.

That’s a job critical to the survival of any democracy, one at which the DA excelled and, in contrast, its MK successor has failed abysmally.

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ANC’s relationship with DA

In contrast, the ANC is much weakened if a DA is not its leading partner. Only substantial economic growth can rescue the governing party from an accelerating slide in support, to forestall a local election bloodbath in 2026 and general election oblivion in 2029.

If the ANC is serious about implementing the kind of policies necessary, it is only the DA that has both the ministerial expertise and public support to achieve this.

While the ANC is able, at a push, to cobble together a parliamentary majority on contentious issues without the DA, it will always be a destabilising process.

The more rats and mice parties involved, the more difficult it will be. The exit of the DA will embolden the pro-MK/ EFF dissidents in the ANC, clustered around President Cyril Ramaphosa’s deadly rival, Deputy President Paul Mashatile. Mashatile has two goals: the exit of the DA and the inclusion of the EFF, and ousting Ramaphosa.

DA’s role is important

Apart from the DA’s arithmetic importance for the ANC in terms of its parliamentary majority and holding onto KZN, there’s a significant public relations factor that cannot be ignored. The DA’s role is important, both in terms of investment and diplomacy.

The business community, both locally and abroad, is measurably reassured by the DA’s participation.

The DA is also the thin blue line, in the eyes of many in the Donald Trump administration, which by a whisker keeps an ANC-led South Africa from even harsher measures of disapproval. Then there’s voter opinion.

Which party would voters go for?

A Brenthurst Foundation survey released last week shows if an election were held today, modelled for likely voter turnout at 58%, the ANC would win 43% of the vote, up 3% from 2024.

The DA would win 27% electoral support, up five percentage points, meaning that it has narrowed the gap with the ANC. Equally worrying for the ANC is that 72% of all voters think the economic situation is bad, including 58% of ANC supporters.

In a similar vein, 70% of voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction, including 57% of ANC supporters. The impasse with the DA poses an enormous dilemma to the ANC.

It undoubtedly needs the DA in the GNU but its tripartite allies, the majority of its members and probably a majority in the Cabinet, are opposed to allowing the DA a meaningful role.

Yet the DA, however dearly it wants to be in the GNU, will not remain if it’s at the expense of being the ANC’s prop or fig leaf.

Against this backdrop, it has done precisely the right thing. Stay in the game, for now. Let the ANC flail.

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