South Africa cannot afford to fall out with the US

Out of an unfortunate combination of naivety and arrogance, the ANC government has made a massive foreign policy miscalculation. In doing so, it has placed the country in the greatest economic and political danger that it has been in decades.

At risk are billions of rands in investment flows, many thousands of jobs and important historical ties with the Western democracies whose democratic and human rights values we purport to share.

Thursday’s claim by the US ambassador to Pretoria that we are clandestinely providing armaments to Russia was explosive. The rand tanked on currency exchanges and its vulnerability signals the grave disquiet of overseas investors.

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Almost as damaging was President Cyril Ramaphosa’s response. Refusing to confirm or deny the veracity of ambassador Reuben Brigety’s statement, Ramaphosa blandly told parliament that he would appoint a commission of inquiry to establish the truth.

This may be characteristic of Ramaphosa, always dithering and stalling. On the other hand, this may be a way — not particularly convincing admittedly — of Ramaphosa distancing himself from actions that he can now claim, appropriately shocked, to have been unauthorised and illegal.

If Brigety’s claims are accurate, they will be extremely damaging to SA’s reputation and interests.

While the West despises SA’s pro-Russian tendencies, they, until now, have grudgingly accepted that it’s perfectly within our rights to pursue this path. But these revelations put a very different complexion on things. Credibility is the key issue.

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The government’s avowed policy is one of nonalignment in general and, specifically, its determination to act as even-handed, independent peacemakers in the Russia-Ukraine war.

We cannot afford to be shown to be acting duplicitously — leveraging a neutral stance to extract economic benefits from both trading blocs, while covertly providing military aid to the Russian aggressor.

It will also have been caught out as a bald-faced liar.

As recently as January, SA officially stated that it had not approved any arms sales to Russia since that country’s invasion in February 2022. At the same time, SA has continued to burnish its warm ties with Russia and China by joining their Indian Ocean naval exercises. And at the United Nations, it has refused to support sanctions against Russia.

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This balancing act was further complicated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) issuing an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin. Putin, a generous contributor to the coffers of the ANC, is to attend an August Brics summit that will be hosted and chaired by SA.

Again the government dithered, ducked and dived. First, it said that it would resign from the ICC and then withdrew the statement, claiming “communication errors” between the party.

These are presumably similar to the “communication errors” that last February caused International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor to condemn Russia’s aggression, only to do a complete about-turn 24 hours later.

This is a deeply divided ANC and government. Ramaphosa has to reconcile the huge support for Russia within its ranks – and a similarly large degree of bitter antipathy towards the West – with realpolitik.

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SA simply can’t afford to fall out with the US and, in political lockstep, with the European Union.

The era of impunity, of seeking aid and investment from the Western democracies while simultaneously abusing them, will only be tolerated to the degree that those nations feel that the positives outweigh the negatives.

Surreptitiously aiding Russia militarily crosses the line. There will be unpleasant consequences.