Ramaphosa’s presidency in jeopardy as GNU faces growing tensions

If the GNU, or government of national unity, is an endangered species, so too is game-farming President Cyril Ramaphosa, also known as McBuffalo.

If the GNU were to collapse, Ramaphosa’s presidency could be short-lived.

He knows that.

His grip on power is slender.

To command a majority in the 400-seat National Assembly, any government needs at least 201 seats.

The ANC has 159. While the GNU is comfortable on 272 seats, that would change if the DA were to withdraw its 87 votes.

ALSO READ: Expropriation Bill strains ANC and DA’s GNU alliance

GNU would be left with 185 (ANC plus: IFP 15, PA 8, Good 2, NFP 1).

Waiting to pounce would be MK 58, EFF 38, VF+ 6, ActionSA 6, UDM4 and so on.

There are many possible permutations, but parties now outside the GNU could not form a majority government without either the ANC or the DA.

What could emerge from a GNU collapse is a minority government where parties lend voting support on a case-by-case basis.

For example, it has been suggested the DA might not support next month’s budget vote in view of Ramaphosa’s non-consultative way of handling the Expropriation Act.

If that were to happen, there’s an outside chance that MK might – just might – support the budget. But there would be a price to pay.

ALSO READ: ‘Zuma doesn’t have to explain why he visited Clive Derby-Lewis’ – MK [VIDEO]

MK is implacably opposed to Ramaphosa.

The animosity between him and MK owner Jacob Zuma is palpable.

MK could demand Ramaphosa’s removal as a condition for voting support on big issues. Neither the MK nor the EFF supports the Expropriation Act as signed by Ramaphosa. It is not radical enough for them.

Those who interpret the new law as signalling the end of property rights in South Africa are being overly alarmist.

There are two main concerns among the GNU parties.

First, the law is internally self-contradictory on how compensation for expropriation should be determined.

ALSO READ: ‘He is also not clean’ – Ramaphosa under fire for ‘sheltering’ corruption-accused Cabinet members

The sequence and processes outlined in Sections 7 and 8 differ from those in Section 19. This anomaly may render the law liable to constitutional challenge.

Minister of Public Works and Infrastructure Dean Macpherson (DA) says he sought senior legal opinion and advised Ramaphosa of this flaw, but the advice was ignored.

Second, GNU partners the DA, IFP and PA contend that by signing the law without consulting them, Ramaphosa undermined the required spirit of consensus and collaboration.

PA leader Gayton McKenzie said Ramaphosa had stabbed GNU leaders in the back by signing without their foreknowledge.

Things may come to a head when GNU leaders meet at today’s Cabinet lekgotla.

While it is unlikely the DA will leave immediately, the relationship between the two biggest parties needs attention.

ALSO READ: Expropriation Act: DA will stay in GNU but want a ‘reset’

And the DA cannot condone a version of the National Health Insurance Bill that seeks to eliminate private medical insurance.

That would be a bridge too far.

This is a critical juncture for the GNU.

In the animal kingdom associated with the abbreviation, the herd shows little mercy for any wounded wildebeest.

Being prey animals, their survival depends on avoiding predators.

So, herds keep moving in order to stay alive.

ALSO READ: ‘They can take all property’: SA divided over new Expropriation Bill

Wounded gnus are left behind in stampedes. And a wounded buffalo is vulnerable when a spear (umkhonto) is raised.

Pas op, Cyril.

Metaphorically.