Ramaphosa’s gamble with SA likely to succeed, for now

A fortnight ago, President Cyril Ramaphosa was still widely dismissed as out of touch and ineffectual, barely competent to tie his own shoelaces.

Following last week’s Brics Summit, he has emerged from his dowdy chrysalis as the newly crowned master of the universe.

There have been gushing tributes from Russia’s Vladimir Putin – Ramaphosa showed “unique diplomatic mastery” in negotiating the expansion of Brics – as well as I-told-you-so’s from many who five years ago were rapturous about CR’s “new dawn” but had slunk sulking into the shrubbery when nothing happened.

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Cyril should not get giddy-headed and South Africans should temper their expectations. It may well be Brics will prove to be a game changer – an independent-minded constellation of developing nations that can act as a genuine counterpoint to Western domination.

But it’s naive to think that China, which is the dominant force in Brics, doesn’t have hegemonic aspirations. Or that Russia doesn’t nurse imperialist dreams. Consider also Putin’s malignant involvement, using the Wagner group as a proxy, in Mali and other Africa countries.

The expansion of Brics with six new members –Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – aggravates an already decidedly undemocratic and authoritarian bent.

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With others queueing to join, the challenge will be to avoid what has made the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) the economically focused Brics’ political equivalent, so ineffectual. NAM has achieved remarkably little in its six decades of existence.

That’s because it has never been truly independent, instead excoriating the West while never daring to criticise Russia or China, or one another. And therein lies the rub.

While the ANC has never made any secret of its pro-Russian position, it post-1994 initially succeeded in doing so while not alienating the West.

Ramaphosa, however, appears to believe that the global political balance has reached a tipping point and is abandoning all caution, to throw in SA’s lot with the China-Russian bloc, gambling that the West won’t react punitively. It’s a gamble that is likely to succeed, for now.

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But with the world in a state of flux that it hasn’t experienced for decades, it might be wiser to wait before nailing SA’s colours to the mast. Nevertheless, there is room for “unique diplomatic mastery”.

It is paradoxically true that Ramaphosa’s status as Putin’s pet gives him leverage over the Russian leader. This means that he is in a position to pressure Putin over the invasion of Ukraine. On experience, it seems unlikely that he has the stomach to do so.

Last year, when his foreign minister criticised the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she was smartly rapped over the knuckles and forced to issue a cringing retraction.

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This week, when Zanu-PF’s thugs stole the election for the sixth time since 2000, the ANC was unabashedly delighted, with secretary-general Fikile Mbalula crowing “viva President Emmerson Mnangagwa” and Ramaphosa congratulating the Zimbabwean government for holding a successful election.

This is despite the Southern African Development Community election observer mission’s announcement that the elections “fell short”.

To expect some steel from Ramaphosa is not whimsy. International relations is a continuous process of balancing ethicality, pragmatic self-interest and the lure of expediency. Successive ANC administrations have placed a dwindling emphasis on political morality in favour of opportunism laced with grievance.

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Whether this masterful approach will advance our country’s interests internationally remains to be seen. But it certainly doesn’t make one particularly proud to be South African.