Ramaphosa is the only buffalo bull still in the kraal

The year of the ANC election is usually an exciting, but tense, moment for party members – the now-traditional jockeying for positions is underway.

That at least one prominent ANC leader was already on the campaign trail is the first indication that the stakes are high. Once more it’s important to state that there is nothing wrong with what Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu is doing – it is her right to campaign.

She is busy recruiting herself into the radical economic transformation (RET) grouping hoping to win them to her side to compensate for her thin grassroots support in the party.

Her backing in the ANC Women’s League is unclear – it looks like it revolves around Bathabile Dlamini, whose political future hangs in the balance after she was convicted of perjury.

Sisulu must pray to win the hearts and minds of the Zuma faction, which lost steam since its main leaders – Jacob Zuma, Ace Magashule and their lieutenant Carl Niehaus – were placed on the sidelines.

Even the most junior political pundit can tell that Magashule won’t be around in December and the faction will remain leaderless. It would be interesting to see if Sisulu succeeds to entrench herself as the new leader of the Zuma faction or the “Sisulu faction” because that’s a sizeable number of votes for her.

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Or is she up to her old Nasrec trick when she entered the presidential race at Nasrec only to withdraw at the last hour and secured a nomination as deputy to Cyril Ramaphosa? She was upstaged by David Mabuza, though, who donated his Mpumalanga delegates’ votes to Ramaphosa in exchange for the position.

Besides her poor footprints on the ground that weakens her campaign attempt to become the first ANC and the country’s female president, she displayed resilience and determination.

On the other hand, Ramaphosa’s momentum is gathering speed in previously Zuma-backing provinces. But for both him and Sisulu, KwaZulu-Natal will be difficult to penetrate. The province thinks and acts on tribal lines.

It is quite ironic that Sisulu began her campaign in the Northern Cape – which has grown to become Ramaphosa’s stronghold since premier Dr Zamani Saul was elected as provincial chair. It’s an indication of her determination to take Ramaphosa on this time around.

Under Saul, the province was working towards achieving 100% Ramaphosa vote in December. He had succeeded to unite the two ANC camps without coercion.

In the Eastern Cape, a Ramaphosa stronghold, local political dynamics are playing out in the open and could frustrate his stand there. His faction is divided into sub-factions. But Mpumalanga, Limpopo and some comrades in Free State expressed confidence in Ramaphosa.

The Western Cape remained ignored as a significant player in ANC politics. The neutralisation of Zuma with an early recall, followed by a short jail time of his own making, Magashule step aside and the public exposure of their lieutenant Niehaus as a fake soldier, advantaged Ramaphosa.

These events, induced by the ANC and the judicial processes, put him in good stead. There is a vacuum that favoured Ramaphosa – making him the only buffalo bull still in the kraal.