Ramaphosa can fire Sisulu and still remain safe at the helm

President Cyril Ramaphosa should have nothing to fear if he wants to dismiss Minister of Tourism Lindiwe Sisulu for embarrassing his government and the ANC that he leads.

I have heard since the controversy of a sitting minister who criticised the constitution that gave her power, that the president would like to fire her but fears the implications of that to his leadership. They say he wouldn’t dare to remove Sisulu lest that escalates the current ANC divisions, jeopardises his unity project and renders the minister a martyr in the Zuma-styled Polokwane takeover. He feared a repeat of the Thabo Mbeki experience – to be recalled after dismissing a member of your Cabinet.

I agree that at Polokwane, Cosatu and the South African Communist Party were behind Zuma, with the odds stacked against Mbeki. Mbeki was demonized while Zuma was hero-worshipped and portrayed as the best. But they all failed to permanently isolate Mbeki.

Instead, some of them Nicodemusly visited Mbeki to apologise for lying about him. Mbeki, while knowing his opponents had amassed support against him towards Polokwane, failed to launch a counter-attack. So I beg to differ with the view that Sisulu is a threat to Ramaphosa. This view ignores the fact that conditions have changed since Polokwane. The Zuma tsunami is no more because the core of that overwhelming wave had abandoned their erstwhile hero, Msholozi.

Unlike Zuma, Sisulu is a paper tigress with no constituency. She does not enjoy the Cosatu and SACP support that Zuma had that swung votes in his favour at Polokwane. Cosatu’s influence at factory floor and the SACP’s district level dominance should not be undermined.

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Another constituency that could help her, the ANC Women’s League, is no longer in Bathabile Dlamini’s firm grip. Facing the axe at the next ANCWL elective conference, Dlamini is finished. Similarly, the ANC Youth League is no longer effective as was the case under Collen Maine and the disgraced former interim national youth task team of Tandi Mahambehlala, who even tried to discredit Pravin Gordhan.

The youth are now being led by a focused group of leaders under Nonceba Mhlauli’s stewardship, who promised to work for ANC unity and not be anybody’s “pocket knife”. Sisulu’s fortunes were at the weakened and disgruntled radical economic transformation (RET) elements.

Her unprovoked attack against the judiciary and black judges was a tactic to scout for this grouping. To appeal to the RET forces, she had to criticise the judiciary and the constitution – the biggest mistake any politician could make. With Zuma and his heir apparent, Ace Magashule, confined, the now politically orphaned RETs were desperate for a champion.

They seem to have found such a champion in Sisulu. So there is nothing for Ramaphosa to fear in dismissing her. He could act against the minister and still remain safe at the helm. She has no leg to stand on, politically.

Instead, Sisulu is heading for the worst defeat in December and her removal would not affect the ANC electoral outcomes at the end of the year.