Ramaphosa and Guptas: change is coming, for the better

We should not fear the changes which suddenly seem imminent. The arrests of Rajesh and Atul Gupta and the mounting evidence against President Cyril Ramaphosa signify tectonic shifts in our political landscape.

Suspicious minds link these two phenomena, as if Ramaphosa’s camp has influenced the timing of Interpol activities in order to distract from the president’s predilection for hiding foreign currency in strange places. Jibes abound: “Meanwhile back at the ranch” … “the bucks stop here” and so on.

But, seriously, the Guptas’ Interpol red notices was headline news on 2 March. So, any connection to the charges laid against Ramaphosa by former spy boss Arthur Fraser last week must be far-fetched. No?

Actually, when we recall that crooked former national police commissioner Jackie Selebi was Interpol president, it’s not unreasonable to imagine political forces freshly at play. Selebi was convicted of bribery and former president Thabo Mbeki was accused of trying to block Selebi’s prosecution.

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So, there is a history of allegations of political interference. Certainly the charges against Ramaphosa – and the Guptas’ detention – take place against the backdrop of the ANC’s national conference in December, where leadership will be contested. Sounds like high stakes. And the tactics will get dirtier as the big day approaches.

But just how big will that day be? In my view, Ramaphosa is the political equivalent of dead man walking. As analyst Carol Paton says: “No matter which way you look at the revelations, it is hard to imagine an explanation that does not involve some degree of criminal culpability on his part and a large degree of poor judgment and stupidity.”

Ramaphosa has shrunk in the past week. That’s bad news for the ANC, which will now be even more divided. But it is not necessarily bad news for South Africa.

“Good guy Cyril” was always a myth, sustained in part by starry-eyed media, who have since withdrawn support. It’s highly unlikely the ANC will govern South Africa after 2024.

Last week’s by-election results show the party losing support countrywide. This slide will continue as internal conflict intensifies. Former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger once said: “Academic politics is so vicious because stakes are so small”.

A similar trend is discernible within the ANC; as the sphere of influence recedes, the contest becomes more vicious. Ramaphosa and the radical economic transformation camps are fighting ever more desperately over a dwindling support base. The ANC is imploding. This won’t mean the end of the world. The sky will not fall in.

In fact, the demise of the ANC is the best thing that could happen to South Africa. It offers a chance to reverse the downward spiral. Don’t expect the Guptas to be on the next flight from Dubai, or Ramaphosa to step aside tomorrow. But change is coming, for the better.

Brace for a bumpy ride as control shifts away from the corrupt ANC and fellow travellers. Do what you can to help ensure a safe, smooth landing.