Police murder crime stats by closing two-thirds of cases

Murder is the most heinous of crimes. The deliberate taking of another’s life shrieks eternally for resolution.

Resolution, in turn, involves the state determining who was responsible and exacting punishment.

Over the past five years, the SA Police Service (Saps) has closed – meaning thrown in the investigatory towel – almost 77 000 murder dockets.

Since there were approximately 115 000 murders in those years, that means Saps has simply given up on two-thirds of the murders committed between 2018 and 2023.

These dismal figures were this week provided by Police Minister Senzo Mchunu.

In all, 5.4 million case dockets were closed over the five-year period, including 40 000 attempted murders and 62 000 rapes.

ALSO READ: New police stations open in Mopani District to combat rising crime

It’s a fact of life that only a small proportion of serious crimes are investigated.

Solve rates for all crimes have dropped precipitously. In 2012, Saps was able to solve 34% of the murder cases opened, but it has been falling steadily and by last year this was down to 12.4%.

The iniquitous effect of Saps’ manipulating its performance statistics can be seen when one extrapolates these “closed docket” rates of 66% to the bigger picture.

About 620 000 people were murdered between 1994 and the beginning of 2024.

From the parliamentary reply by the minister, we now know that it’s possible that approximately 415 000 of those murders were simply closed as being unsolvable. No more investigation.

No further attempt at achieving justice. This is political smoke and mirrors. When using overly simplistic quantitative management methods, it’s tempting to just close dockets.

Take two-thirds of them out of the equation and the statistics look deceptively better.

Gareth Newham, head of the justice and violence prevention programme at the Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS) says the ploy is part of a “serial crisis” in the top management of Saps.

“There’s a lack of clearly articulated objectives and strategies to achieve these.”

Tweaking the murder statistics is not only morally abhorrent to the victims and their families. Newham points out that murder – which has increased by 77% in the past dozen years – is the prime driver in the key statistics.

A mere 12% of Saps precincts account for 50% of murders and under 3% account for 20% of murders.

“If Saps focused, prioritised, measured, investigated properly and improved accountability,” says Newham, “their performance could quickly be much improved.”

The other leg to any improvement in the clearance rate is more and better deployment of detecting resources.

The Detective Services personnel are underpaid and overworked. Low morale, fuelled in part by race barriers to promotion, has led to Saps shedding a third of them over the past half-dozen years and now has only 17 000 left.

It is set to get worse unless Mchunu sets a different strategic course from that of his useless predecessor, Bheki Cele.

ALSO READ: ‘We have no choice but to defend ourselves’: Masemola on police shootouts

ISS hopes the new minister will be open to adopting a different approach.

“We have the resources, we have the know-how,” says Newham.

“But it has to start at the highest management level of Saps. You have to get the right people in there, give them the authority and the political backing for reform.”

It is admirable that ISS’ optimism remains undaunted, despite many years of seeing its advice ignored.

But as with so many other aspects of governance in this country, the momentarily changed circumstances brought about by the government of national unity offers a rare opportunity. One can only hope that Saps seizes it.

However, this being South Africa, while hoping for the best it’s wise to expect the worst.