This ANC race will be quite different

Following their major setback at the ANC Eastern Cape conference – where their favourite lost the race for provincial leader – the “radical economic transformation” (RET) faction loyal to Jacob Zuma is preparing to take on President Cyril Ramaphosa from their lairs in KwaZulu-Natal.

The race for the presidency of the ANC, which is scheduled to be decided at the party’s end-of-year conference, is going to be a wholly different affair than it was the last time around, in 2017 at Nasrec.

This time, Ramaphosa is in a much stronger position than he was then, when the RET forces were pushing Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for the top spot. This year, Ramaphosa and his allies have been hard at work in the provinces, where it looks likely he will have the support of eight of the nine provinces.

KZN is where the real political fight will be. Former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize – accused of profiting from state tenders worth millions – threw his hat into the ring against Ramaphosa last week. Ominously, for those concerned about growth of tribal politics in the ANC, Mkhize went to the amabutho (Zulu regiments) and izinduna (traditional leaders) for support.

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At the same time, the ANC’s Musa Dladla region in KZN made no bones about their support for Zuma, proclaiming him a victim of political machinations. Yet, the candidacy of Mkhize was intriguing because it cast a shadow over the lofty presidential ambitions of Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, who had clearly been hoping for the support of Nkandla and the rest of the province in her bid for ANC high office.

The reality is that KZN is unlikely to support a woman, never mind someone with Eastern Cape roots. If Sisulu feels alienated, she may well gravitate back towards Ramaphosa. And that would be an interesting political twist.