Stat-watching: A data-driven teddy bear in a Covid-19 storm

I have clung to the Health Department’s infographic like a life raft in a storm of Covid-19 uncertainty. Like a teddy bear, when the thunder of fear rattles my windowpanes. I have seen it soar into the terrifying heights of the 16,000 new cases per day. I have seen it plunge to as few as 600 cases.

There is a bunch of other data presented on this infographic, which comes in cheerful green and yellow around a map of South Africa. I could choose to focus on tests conducted, total positive cases, total recoveries or total deaths.

But no. New cases is my fighter. That is the stat I have decided to believe in, and my state of mind and paranoia levels fluctuate with the numbers in that little box on the top right corner.

#COVID19 Statistics in SA as at 16 December.

Use the COVID Alert SA app to protect yourself, your loved ones and your community. Start using this privacy preserving app today. Add your phone to the fight! Download the Covid Alert SA app now! https://t.co/8YKEqaiiRF pic.twitter.com/6EWLLT9Y5t

— Dr Zweli Mkhize (@DrZweliMkhize) December 16, 2020

Is my precious stat comprehensive? Probably not. Does it represent all new cases? No. Does it offer a reliable insight into the progress of the pandemic in our country? I’m not sure. Do I care? Well, not really.

We live in the most data-rich time in history. Thanks to the internet of things, and a society obsessed with measurable information, we can now access stats on just about every aspect of our lives.

Whether these stats, in fact, categorically tell us anything about our lives is up to debate. We can often find stats to back up any position we wish to take.

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Statistics can be like ammunition in a pillow fight. Would you like to prove that the coronavirus pandemic is a made-up scam? You’ll be able to find stats to back that up. You want to demonstrate that the virus has us captive in the worst health crisis in human history? You will certainly also be able to prove that using the power of statistics.

This is one of the pros and the cons of living in a data swamp. Everything is generating numbers. Numbers look impressive. However, used in isolation, numbers in fact tell us very little. Context, once again, is everything.

Statistics can be like a digital map of the world. You can zoom in on the Danakil Desert in Ethiopia and believe the world is a desolate hellscape. Zoom out a little further and the country of Ethiopia reveals itself as a densely populated tropical country.

When looking at statistics around road deaths, we can learn that last year’s tragic road deaths were down a significant 25% from the year before. But looking at longer-term trends, last year’s figure of 1390 was well up on the 2012 figure of 1 221.

Take a global perspective, and South Africa’s annual road death total is among the worst in the world. Look at our rate of 25.1 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and we don’t rank quite so badly. Look at the world’s road death rankings by 100,000 motor vehicles, and our rankings are even better.

It’s almost as if the most relevant statistics are those that support what you’re trying to say.

People are gradually becoming aware of this, and the phenomenon is breeding a type of statistics scepticism. In a time where data can be made to tell almost any story, any story becomes hard to believe – even when there are stats to support it.

The best way to identify trends is to find a measure that tells at least part of a story, and then to watch how it changes over time.

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This is the path I have chosen. I know my precious Covid-19 new cases statistic is flawed. I know it only tells part of the story. But it has become my story. This is the angle I choose to believe. I’m running on faith here.

In a world where everything generates data, and that data can be shaped and smoothed in the service of almost any argument, data risks becoming meaningless.

It’s not meaningless, but there is a job to be done to manage data reliably to generate credible insights.

Until that happens, statistics will continue to run on faith, alongside social systems like religion, patriotism, and the economy. If you believe in it, it’s real to you.

Hagen Engler. Picture: Supplied

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