Lindiwe Sisulu’s chance at ANC crown slim

Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu – that is supposed to be her job – has been spending an inordinate amount of time recently on the campaign trail, punting herself as the first female president of the ANC.

The campaign has taken on more urgency as the clock ticks down to the ANC’s elective conference, scheduled for December at Nasrec conference centre. In recently attacking President Cyril Ramaphosa over the Phala Phala robbery saga, Sisulu has probably burned her bridges with him and is highly unlikely to get the nod from him as deputy president (of the organisation and the country), should he win again at Nasrec.

Sisulu came close to that position in 2017, but it ultimately went to Mpumalanga strongman David Mabuza, who provided the votes which ensured victory for Ramaphosa.

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However, she now has to convince the RET (radical economic transformation) faction of the ANC, which is loyal to Jacob Zuma, that they should back her for the top job. That is also extremely unlikely, given that Zuma himself has endorsed Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s candidacy.

Another wrinkle for Sisulu – and for Dlamini-Zuma – is that the KwaZulu-Natal heartland, which was formerly solidly behind Zuma, is now divided and there is a strong section which believes the RET group’s best chance of securing the presidency is through former health minister Zweli Mkhize, who is facing allegations of corruption in the Digital Vibes scandal.

The fact that KZN is a province ruled by a patriarchal tradition should not be discounted and this will count against both women RET hopefuls. If the faction is going to put up a serious challenge to Ramaphosa – who is apparently riding high on support from around the country – they are going to have to find unity.

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And the price for that unity may be throwing the two women under the bus.