Keeping the jumbos at bay

I must admit, I’m a sucker for statistics. They just don’t lie. Now, now, put down the rotten eggs and hear me out. Statistics are serious business.

They’re used daily by people who shape our very existence, like pension fund managers making investment decisions on our behalf. Also, by politicians. Unfortunately, in the current scenario, statistics have become a political tool to scare the living daylights out of us ordinary folk to keep us in check.

We get bombarded daily with the latest Covid-19 stats: 3.4 million tests conducted; half a million positive cases; more than 10, 000 deaths. Really? Remember, statistics don’t lie. But people do. Can I ask for one simple statistic: how many people in South Africa died in April in the last five years? That’s from 2016-2020.

My guess is the number of deaths in April of every year has remained pretty constant or could even have decreased this year due to the fact that there were hardly any Easter weekend road accident fatalities. And can I ask that those numbers are provided by statisticians, not politicians.

The use of the word “pandemic” could only be warranted if, indeed, the overall death toll compared to previous years has escalated beyond belief. But statistically, our chance of getting the real stats, are very slim.

While many people do perceive the coronavirus as a possible Armageddon, most also think fishing is relaxing. But the reality is that fishing is actually the most dangerous occupation in the US, with 128.9 deaths per 100 000 in 2008, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics. Of course, if the stats prove that our death rate declined in April this year, no doubt the Covid Crook Council will tell us it’s the result of their actions.

Reminds me of the flute player in Cape Town who, after a month plying his trade on a street corner, demanded payment from the local council for keeping elephants away. “But there aren’t any elephants,” was the council’s reply. “Exactly,” said the flautist.

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