Julius Malema’s powerplay plan

If you join enough dots, two big stories of the week may be connected. One issue is the attempt by the Zupta camp, using agents in the security cluster and the media, to tarnish Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa’s image.

Another is the decision by the EFF to limit its attendance at metro council meetings. This could topple municipal governments in Johannesburg and Tshwane. How are the stories related?

The following is a personal opinion, not the view of any political party. It’s merely a theory, an attempt to make sense of what’s happening.

To link disjointed facts: EFF leader Julius Malema was among those who predicted that allegations about Ramaphosa were going to be aired.

At this stage the dirty tricks campaign against Ramaphosa seems to have backfired but we don’t know what other ammunition his enemies have in store. That war is not over. Malema does not like Ramaphosa.

As mentioned in a previous column (August 16), Ramaphosa chaired the ANC’s national disciplinary committee of appeals which upheld Malema’s expulsion from the ANC in 2012.

Recently, despite media coverage, and noise in parliament, Malema’s EFF has seen its electoral fortunes waver.

For example, in the August 23 by-election in Johannesburg’s Ward 124, the EFF share of the vote slipped from 11.99% in 2016 to 9.4% in 2017.

Generally, the EFF has not been doing well at the polls since 2016. Unlike the DA, it has not grown.

This may have triggered the perception that the EFF’s “kingmaker” position, where it has helped the DA gain power in Johannesburg and Tshwane, has not been sufficiently leveraged to attract new voters to the EFF.

Hence a change of tactic, creating more distance between the EFF and DA. Also bear in mind the state of flux in the ANC, which still attracts more votes than any other party in South Africa.

There is no chance Malema would go back to the ANC while not-my-president Jacob Zuma is in charge. But Zuma’s days as party president are nearly over.

In December the ANC will choose a new leader. Sensing that Ramaphosa’s chances of winning the ANC presidency would be damaged by further negative publicity, Malema may have calculated this is a good time to test the wind. In politics, timing is crucial.

An ANC without Zuma or Ramaphosa in control would be an attractive proposition for a young man who knows his red beret won’t really bring him the power he wants.

So here’s a possible scenario. When Zuma’s term ends in December, someone other than Ramaphosa is voted in as party leader. Or perhaps Malema and Ramaphosa patch up their differences.

An early election is called. The ANC, rattled by Zuptagate and “smallanyana” skeletons, is not assured of victory.

Malema plays his cards before or after elections. He offers to help the ANC, in exchange for becoming deputy president of the country.

He also offers the ANC control of the metros, in exchange for key positions there for EFF comrades. After a while, the EFF and the ANC merge.

And Malema is a heartbeat from becoming president. Just a daydream of course, could never happen, could it?

DA city councillor for Joburg Martin Williams