Joburg faces collapse if GNU falls apart

Crumbling Johannesburg will slide more quickly if the government of national unity (GNU) collapses over disputes between the ANC and DA over the country’s budget.

A broken GNU will shorten President Cyril Ramaphosa’s political career and boost his radical rivals in the ANC.

They, in turn, would scupper recent attempts by Ramaphosa to improve governance in South Africa’s biggest city.

Johannesburg is still a goldmine for tender-loving cadres who know how to access public money while ruining service delivery.

The last thing they want is any tightening of the way Joburg does business.

Ramaphosa’s rivals within the ANC are excited by the prospect of a GNU collapse. Scenting the blood of a wounded buffalo, they are circling for a kill.

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Leading the charge is Deputy President Paul Mashatile, who says DA ministers should be ashamed to pitch up at work after voting against the fiscal framework.

There is no legal basis for assuming that disagreements over budget are grounds for terminating GNU membership.

In trying to goad the DA to leave the GNU, Mashatile is deliberately challenging Ramaphosa.

Without the DA, the ANC in parliament would be reliant on the support of unreliable smaller parties who are capable of switching sides instantly.

Bringing either the MK Party (58 seats) or EFF (39 seats), or both, into the GNU would not help Ramaphosa.

Both harbour grudges against him.

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They would bring or support a motion of no confidence against Ramaphosa.

Numerically the ANC (159) and DA (87) have 246 votes in the 400-seat National Assembly, a comfortable majority which would allow them to govern in a grand coalition without other partners.

However, factions within the ANC would not accept being so dependent on the DA.

To placate rivals within the ANC and dilute the influence of the DA in June last year, Ramaphosa created a bigger GNU.

Prof Richard Calland describes this in the Sunday Times as, “tactical sleight of hand; it made the package, including the DA, far more politically acceptable to a wider group of factions within the ANC”.

However, Ramaphosa can’t indefinitely placate internal factions. The crisis over voting on the budget has intensified internal ANC rivalry.

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Mashatile, nominally in pole position as deputy president, had to raise his hand. ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula has also been critical of the DA, while Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi carps relentlessly about the GNU.

Ramaphosa has cornered himself. If he expels the DA, he won’t complete his second term. If the DA is not expelled, internal ANC ructions will continue.

Remember, a month ago Ramaphosa announced a “Presidential Johannesburg Working Group” to help revive the city.

No positive impact has been felt.

In fact, much has deteriorated. And there is justifiable scepticism about presidential working groups.

But there is a glimmer of hope, including interest shown by big business.

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For many, such hope for Joburg will vanish if the radical economic transformation factions take over the ANC.

Corruption and looting will intensify, further hampering already risible service delivery.

There is no “good ANC”. But for the sake of Johannesburg and the country, let’s hope sanity prevails and the DA remains in the GNU.