Is this country ready for a hybrid war?

A national strategy is a realistic, intelligence driven, state-focussed vision and can be short-, medium- or long-term in nature.

It assesses and amplifies how a state intends to position itself on the domestic, regional and international stages. It is an intellectually driven process, not an actionable activity, and has an extraordinary impact on the success or failure of a country.

One critical aspect that appears to be lacking in many governments is a defined and sustainable national strategy based on credible, actionable, and predictive intelligence. The best possible strategy serves no purpose if it is not implemented and supported by good policies – or if not implemented at all.

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Viewed from afar, it is apparent that this country suffers numerous strategy deficits.

Foreign relations and security, domestic affairs and the economy, energy affairs and tourism, the list goes on… It is this large shortfall that results in failed or negative national trajectories that make for angry and despondent people.

They bring out the worst in people, communities, and organisations or movements. Often – and as appears to be the case – SA’s national trajectory is shaped and driven by party-political emotions, fake news, supposition and innuendo, as opposed to domestic and foreign policy realities in a complex geopolitical environment.

A successful strategy, well implemented, isn’t only about how we wish to position ourselves in the future, it is also dependent on how we want people in the domestic, regional and international arenas to view the government – now and in the future.

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Unfortunately, we are no longer viewed through the rose-tinted glasses we so happily exploited as a result of compromise on numerous fronts.

We have also shown that we fail to grasp the term “neutrality” and the implications and consequences if it is misused or interpreted to suit a specific agenda.

The foregoing are a few of the factors that drive people to riots and protests and, worse, motivate them to take up arms against a state, overthrow the existing political order and replace it with their own.

Domestic armed conflicts have progressed beyond what Mao Zedong, theorist and former chair of the People’s Republic of China, envisioned in his criteria for an armed anti-government campaign.

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Infrastructure has since developed, technology has improved, communications are lightning fast, cyber technologies have emerged, electronic measures and countermeasures are freely available and licit and illicit markets are overflowing with arms and ammunition.

The above makes it relatively easy for anti-government movements to obtain arms, ammunition, explosives, communications and cyber technologies, intelligence, and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) that can be easily weaponised.

Operating with impunity from ungoverned areas, and structured in cell systems, small forces can create disproportionate damage and fear across multiple state domains. They contribute to a state’s inertia.

In the African context, this form of conflict, often referred to as “hybrid warfare”, is an anti-government campaign that harnesses militant politics, conventional and unconventional approaches, popular protests, xenophobia, riots and uprisings, gang warfare, voter intimidation, armed criminal violence, assassinations, kidnapping and extortion and sabotage and terrorism, and such.

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The aim of hybrid warfare is to simultaneously attack the state across multiple domains and fronts and force it into submission. When a state has entered the realm of “failing” or “failed”, its becomes an easy target to collapse for hybrid forces.

Even a cursory read of newsfeeds makes it clear we are already under attack by several elements of hybrid warfare.

On a daily basis, mainstream and social media are abuzz with kidnappings, gang shootings, militant politics, sabotage, protests and riots, anarchy, xenophobia, land invasions, assassinations, cyber intrusions, armed attacks against farms and shopping centres, energy blackouts and communications failures. B

y all accounts, SA has already become embroiled in a hybrid war. Whereas it may now appear to be low-tempo, it can transition rapidly into a high-tempo conflict unless urgent attention is given to eradicate the expanding hybrid ecosystem.

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Given the recent challenges and problems experienced by our security forces, it is highly unlikely that we are both ready and able to combat this scourge.

-Barlow is CEO of Executive Outcomes.