Is there a Putin-Mabuza powerplay in motion?

Deputy President David Mabuza’s latest trip to Moscow has slipped under the radar as we all focus on Covid-19 pandemic.

His journey may be more than a quest for medical attention, amid whispers about politicians poisoned in ways that can somehow be cured in Russia and nowhere else.

What if the toxic matter here is the nuclear agreement between former president Jacob Zuma and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who is still looking for returns on a down payment.

ALSO READ: Deputy President David Mabuza takes leave for ‘medical consultation’

As Mark Swilling argued in Daily Maverick in 2018, “the 9.6 gigawatt nuclear deal between Zuma and Putin lies at the very centre of state capture and the silent coup”.

Swilling added: “It is perfectly plausible that money has already changed hands, possibly recorded in ways that could compromise Zuma. Or else Zuma has somehow been threatened, for example retaliations against his family.”

Consider Putin’s options now if he wants payback on his investment. Zuma is against the ropes. Zuma’s ally Ace Magashule is in a hole. Putin’s best bet is Mabuza, whom Russia previously hosted at least twice.

Mabuza’s term as ANC deputy president expires in December next year, when the party’s 55th national conference will elect new leaders. Putin may have calculated that Mabuza is best placed to unseat President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Ramaphosa rattled Putin in January 2018 by announcing in Davos that nuclear was not an option for South Africa.

When Mabuza visited Moscow a short while later, various reasons were given. There was speculation that Mabuza had been sent to Russia to “break the bad news” to Putin that South Africa would not be going ahead with a nuclear deal. That’s an unlikely explanation.

Putin is not stupid. He already knew what Ramaphosa had said in Davos. A more likely reason is Mabuza was summoned to help Putin plot a way forward. Putin will have noticed how Mabuza swung votes in favour of Ramaphosa against Zuma at the ANC’s 2017 elective conference.

With the longterm thinking of a chess player, Putin may have assessed Mabuza’s chances of winning in 2022. Russia is accused of influencing many elections.

The Betrayal of the Promise report on state capture authored by a group of academics in 2017, “suggests the Russians funded the ANC’s local government election campaign”.

Putin could right now be working out a deal with Mabuza to topple Ramaphosa next year and resuscitate the nuclear deal, regardless of what our courts say.

Swilling wrote in 2018 that “building a nuclear power plant in South Africa is [Russia’s] top foreign policy goal”.

Back in SA, which vaccine were the red berets demanding during their irresponsible mass protest last week? Sputnik, developed in Russia. Why did they single out Sputnik? Join dots.

Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema has, in the past, insulted Mabuza. But the Erratic Flip-Flopper can change his mind in an instant. As can Mabuza.

Is chess player Putin also using Duduzane Zuma as a pawn? Last year, Duduzane claimed he organised for Mabuza to be secretly flown to Russia in 2015 for treatment for alleged poisoning. Imagine Putin orchestrating Mabuza, Malema and Duduzane in a nuclear powerplay. Crazy idea?