Indication remains SA will have another favourable agricultural season

We are about a month away from the start of the 2022-2023 summer crop season. Farmers in SA’s eastern regions, which includes the eastern Free State, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape, will start planting by mid-October. This will primarily be summer grains and oilseeds.

The northern hemisphere has experienced extreme heat and drought, prompting me to wonder whether there will be similar extremes in the upcoming season in the southern hemisphere. We are in a La Nina cycle, which means the typical weather conditions would be higher rainfall for southern Africa, and drought for East Africa and South America.

Extreme weather events could mean excessive rain in southern Africa, while other regions would remain dry. This remains a worry as SA experienced episodes of excessive rain at the start of the 2021- 2022 summer, which proved disastrous for crop plantings and vegetables in some places. The livestock industry also reported a greater incidence of disease due to wet weather conditions.

The SA Weather Service sees a strong likelihood of a weak La Nina state, which I suspect would bring moderate rains. The weather agency says the weak La Nina state is likely to remain for the rest of the year and the weather to return to a neutral state in early next year.

This forecast is comforting and points to a season of above-average rainfall, but within the levels at which agricultural activity could continue. The weather service states that “rainfall conditions are predicted to improve further during the early summer into the start of the midsummer months”.

This is a conducive time for summer grains and oilseeds planting, as these crops typically need high moisture levels from October to February of the next year. After that, the warmer weather conditions naturally aid crop maturation. These are also ideal and favourable conditions for the livestock industry, which depends on natural grazing. The prospects of a La Nina are not only reported by the domestic weather agency.

In its most recent update, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology estimates that “the chance of La Nina forming in the coming months is at least 70%. This is about three times the normal likelihood of an event forming in any year”. The only aspect everyone is unsure about is the intensity of this weather phenomenon.

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To this end, the SA Weather Service provides comfort that we could have moderate rain. In the case of a harsh La Nina weather event, the global agricultural community would also feel the effect, specifically through a potential poor crop in South America, which would be under drought. Brazil and Argentina account for 14% and 50% of global maize and soya bean production, respectively.

The current 2022-2023 maize production estimates from the International Grains Council suggest that Brazil and Argentina’s maize production could increase by seven and six percent from the 2021-2022 season to 123 million tons and 61 million tons respectively. The two countries’ 2022-2023 soya bean production is estimated at 145 million tons and 48 million tons, up 17% and 14% from the previous season respectively. This crop improvement is due to an expected expansion in plantings and rains.

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As these countries will start planting at about the same time as SA, if the weather conditions prove more extreme, the challenge won’t only be felt in SA, but globally.

The expected improvement in global soya bean production, and stability in maize production, depends on the outcome of South America’s production in the 2022-2023 season. The weather forecasts point to a more forgiving summer. The indication remains that SA will have yet another favourable agricultural season in 2022-2023 summer.

-Sihlobo is an economist