GNU faces existential threat due to several contentious developments

South Africa’s political landscape shifted with the 2024 government of national unity (GNU) aiming to unite the nation amid past divisions.

The coalition government, including the ANC and DA, is focusing on economic recovery, anticorruption measures, alleviation of poverty, national cohesion, transparency and accountability.

However, the Cape Independence movement continues to advocate for the Western Cape’s secession due to economic and identity reasons.

Tensions between parties

At the same time, the GNU already faces internal tensions, with the DA accusing the ANC of dominating policymaking, potentially impacting peace, stability and unity countrywide.

The GNU brought hope to many South Africans. But, as they hope for the best, reality is never too far away.

The rocky start of the GNU does not bode well for its longevity, as several contentious developments strain its existence.

• DA allegations of bad faith negotiation: The DA has accused the ANC of negotiating in bad faith during the formation of the GNU.

The crux of the issue is that the ANC allegedly secured a disproportionate number of Cabinet positions relative to its electoral share, which the DA perceives as an attempt by the ANC to maintain a dominant influence over the government despite the coalition arrangement.

This has resulted in tensions within the coalition, with the DA feeling sidelined and mistrustful of the ANC’s intentions.

• Policymaking under ANC dominance: Further complicating coalition dynamics, the ANC has stipulated that any significant policy decisions within ministerial departments must reach consensus at the Cabinet lekgotla, a biannual planning meeting of SA’s executive, which, by numbers, are dominated by the ANC.

This requirement is seen by critics as a tactic by the ANC to unilaterally control policy directions, even within a theoretically shared government, thus undermining the collaborative spirit expected in a GNU.

• Strategic undermining of the DA: There are allegations that the ANC is strategically positioning itself to ensure that the DA does not achieve visible success in the departments it controls.

The ANC has accused the DA of trying to create a “parallel government” to discredit the ANC.

This strategy might be aimed at undermining the DA’s effectiveness in governance in the eyes of the public, thereby weakening its political standing and electoral prospects.

• Withdrawal from the Gauteng legislature: The DA’s withdrawal from the Gauteng legislature underscores the fracturing relationship within the coalition.

This move likely reflects broader dissatisfaction with the power-sharing arrangement and could signal challenges in other regions or aspects of governance.

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• Instability in KwaZulu-Natal: The situation in KZN, with the prospect of parliamentary disruptions and public unrest, further highlights the volatile political climate.

Such instability not only affects regional governance but also poses a risk to national unity and the effectiveness of the GNU.

• Ideological divides: Significant ideological differences continue to strain the coalition, particularly regarding major policy initiatives like the National Health Insurance, the Bela Bill, broad-based black economic empowerment, and expropriation without compensation.

These policies represent deeply entrenched views and interests that are not easily reconciled. The ANC’s commitment to these policies, which involve substantial transformations in health care, land ownership, economic structure, and social equity, conflicts with more conservative or market-oriented approaches typically favoured by the DA.

• Failed advocacy for devolved powers: The DA sought an agreement on devolved powers as a core principle for participating in the GNU.

The ANC appeared to be resistant to the DA’s demands for greater devolution, fearing it might lead to weakened central control, which they believe is necessary for maintaining national unity.

Devolved powers did not appear in the statement of intent, which the DA apparently conceded as a requirement.

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These challenges not only complicate the day-to-day functioning of the GNU, but also pose existential threats to its stability and longevity.

Whether the coalition can navigate these troubled waters with respectful negotiation, transparent governance, and the genuine commitment to compromise needed to achieve the national unity and effective governance that South Africa needs, remains to be seen.

The ongoing struggle to maintain coalition unity puts provincial autonomy on the back burner.

If the GNU falters, Cape Independence will surge in relevance, reigniting the support of those who seek regional independence to protect their livelihoods from a failing state.

• Swart is an exco member of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group and chief of staff of the Referendum Party. She has a doctorate in forensic psychology, an MBA and a MA in military studies