The powerlessness of Julius Malema

It may seem far from obvious, but behind the scenes of what’s going on in Port Elizabeth is the Patriotic Alliance’s Gayton McKenzie, one of the political scene’s lowest fliers and one of the EFF’s most hated individuals.

To recap, here are some of the obvious things we all already know:

The DA is governing Nelson Mandela Bay in coalition with Mosiuoa Lekota’s Cope, the UDM’s Bantu Holomisa and Kenneth Meshoe’s ACDP. Together they were able to form a government because they reached the 61 seats required out of 120 – so the support of the EFF and its six seats wasn’t required in the Bay.

However, the support of Julius Malema’s party for the DA in Pretoria and Johannesburg is crucial for it to rule in those metros, which they’ve held since last year.

Despite this, it seems the DA actually takes Malema’s support for granted nowadays – because they know he is very unlikely to turn on them as long as the hated President Jacob Zuma is still in power.

Many times Malema has huffed and many times he has puffed at the DA – and the DA has merely brushed him off.

No house came tumbling down when he moaned about Herman Mashaba. The houses kept standing when he moaned bitterly about Helen Zille. He threatened to withdraw his support each time. Each time, he did not.

Why?

Obviously Malema wants to return to the ANC and become the future president of this country. But as long as Zuma is in charge, that can never happen.

The recent vote of no confidence in Zuma was the closest the young man has ever come to realising his great ambition. Had it been successful, the EFF may already have been dissolved, and Malema may already be back in the welcome arms of his beloved black, green and yellow true home.

As it happens, the next president of the ANC is likely to be Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (like it or not), and that will keep Malema out in the cold and having to keep supporting parties like the DA that he actually hates.

All of this was made all the more clear this week in Nelson Mandela Bay, and by next week it should be even clearer.

McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance (PA) has always been an outspoken critic of the DA and has made clear its ambitions to wrest the support of the DA’s coloured voters away from it – so the PA is not a friend to the DA and is unlikely to ever be.

But in the game of political thrones, it was this same PA that came to the rescue this week of DA mayor Athol Trollip in Nelson Mandela Bay after Trollip’s relationship had broken down with the UDM-appointed deputy mayor, Mongameli Bobani.

Trollip and the DA could no longer work with Bobani after numerous allegations of corruption and the fact that Bobani supposedly even voted with the ANC on about five occasions.

Despite all this, Holomisa is furious at what he calls a smear campaign against his man.

Since Bobani wasn’t voting as he was expected to anyway, it’s unlikely Trollip cares about the UDM now. The fact that he was able to get 60 councillors (57 DA, 1 ACDP, 1 PA, 1 Cope) to vote Bobani out on Thursday means he’s probably feeling confident of being able to keep the wheels of government turning.

The EFF and ANC were trying to leave the house in protest, but were considered to “be there” nevertheless, and so the vote reached a quorum and was upheld – much to their dismay.

Game of bluff

Why didn’t Trollip just bring the motion of no confidence himself? Why wait for the PA to do it and thus allow McKenzie’s party to benefit from having a moment in the spotlight?

Well, coalition partners shouldn’t be bringing motions of no confidence against each other, right? But if someone else “just so happens to do it” – well, then, “one will have to vote with one’s conscience” in such a scenario. Right?

Trollip is probably thinking he’s played this one pretty well, especially since the UDM isn’t that important in Johannesburg and doesn’t matter at all in Pretoria. He’s probably thinking he hasn’t imperilled the other two big coalition governments. He probably knows he’s upset the EFF and that the EFF will no doubt threaten to withdraw its support yet again.

He has no doubt worked out, though, that it will just be another bluff. The DA obviously knows Malema has simply been trying to use them in his fight against an ANC led by Zuma. But knowing this, they must realise they can, in turn, continue to use Malema and his EFF far more profitably in the meantime, and possibly for many years to come.

Malema is, quite simply, trapped. He has to just keep biding his time and hoping his luck will change. Even so, Malema must realise that even if Cyril Ramaphosa becomes the next president, he has little chance of getting back into the ANC. The “Commander in Chief” will become just another ageing, noisy opposition leader shouting from the sidelines while his more radical, poverty-stricken and angry, disenfranchised supporters find someone even louder and more extreme to coalesce around.

Watch this space

If the PA’s one councillor in the Bay, Marlon Daniels, suddenly gets a position or some other reward in Trollip’s government then it will be blindingly obvious that a deal was struck between the PA and the DA. Daniels has already said he wants to be the new deputy mayor and he seems to think he has a strong chance of becoming that – though such lofty ambitions are probably a bit optimistic.

But an MMC? Sure, why not.

McKenzie, despite having started his own political party, has always been a staunch supporter of the ANC and has continued to openly express support for Zuma. Malema himself once alleged the whole idea behind the PA was for McKenzie’s party to split the so-called coloured vote in the Western Cape in a way that would play into the ANC’s hands and break the backbone of support for the DA in its stronghold province.

McKenzie’s one seat in Ekurhuleni also played a role in allowing the ANC to at least retain one metro in Gauteng last year. He remains in coalition with the ANC there and his most recent statement that he intends to “review” this agreement in light of the “disgusting” fact that the ANC supported Bobani and his “corruption” in the Bay is probably just a smokescreen.

It should be obvious that McKenzie is trying to sow division in the fragile relationship between the EFF and the DA. He’s no doubt also enjoying doing it. The DA appears more than happy to allow him to attempt it, too, without being overly concerned – despite the fact that this is the same McKenzie who is possibly as despised by Malema and the EFF on a level of hatred that comes close to their antipathy towards Zuma himself.

If the EFF gets the idea the DA has been doing “deals” with McKenzie, it’s uncertain just how angry Malema will get, and just how destructive that anger is likely to be. He may snap at last, and then all bets are off.

But he’ll probably also just let this one go. He’ll have to keep his mouth shut once more and swallow yet another bitter pill served to him, this time, by McKenzie.

But this one will go down with particularly great difficulty.

Charles Cilliers, Citizen.co.za digital editor