A regional war in the Middle East could be imminent

The war in the Middle East, following the mass killings of Palestinians in Gaza as Israel responds to Hamas’ earlier attacks, could escalate into a full-blown regional war reminiscent of the 1967 Six Day War unless peace is found.

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The anger among Arab nations is widespread and some had severed their diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv. Even the recent normalisation of relations with Israel by some Arab countries is in jeopardy.

With former enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia smoking the peace pipe in a deal brokered recently by China, we should be worried when these two states and others threaten to act to defend the Palestinians against Israel… that’s war talk.

Considering that participants in the 1967 war have since advanced militarily and Arabs and Israel are backed by military superpowers Russia and US respectively, this situation is menacing to world peace. The Middle East, in addition to Ukraine and the Taiwan-China tension, is another frontier for a possible proxy war between the US and Russia.

Moscow had increased its military strength, including an expansive nuclear programme with the speediest ballistic missiles, such as the scary Satan 2, to counter the US military accumulation. The big guns should be careful not to get involved in direct confrontation with each other, but would be happy to test each other in a proxy war on behalf of their regional allies. To the US, Israel is more important than Ukraine. They could abandon Ukraine and advise it to go for the peaceful resolution option, which, of course, would be Russia’s victory.

The US would rather spend energy prowling Middle East waters to scare off Israel’s regional enemies such as Iran, Syria, Yemen and others. Israel’s geographic location makes it a strategic partner and an obvious choice for US’ geopolitical hegemony. Currently, the US is busy with sea manoeuvres to surround arch-rivals like China, Russia and Israel’s neighbouring enemies and set itself up in case of war. Ukraine was never a priority for the Americans, but used by the US to frustrate Russia because the White House knew the real reason why Moscow invaded Ukraine in the first place – not what they tell us in public.

Before sending its troops, Russia complained about Ukraine allowing Nato’s expansion towards the Russian border and about the bombardments by neo-Nazists and killing of residents in the Russian-speaking Donbas region. With mounting pressure from US lawmakers to justify the use of taxpayers’ money to prop up the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration might be weighing up making a choice between Ukraine and Israel. Israel will always come first for the US. America would do anything to defend it, even becoming involved in a direct war to ensure its survival.

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This leaves Ukraine in the cold and with no option but to start seeking its own solution to its war with Russia. One of the countries holding that solution is South Africa, the only country able to speak to both sides and be listened to. That makes this week’s visit to Pretoria by Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba not a coincidence but a strategic affair: Ukraine is seeking new partners in case it loses the US.

Even as it is dilly-dallying, the US has many reasons to want to convince Israel to stop the Israel-Hamas war. One being that its own initiative to have some Arab nations normalise relations with Israel hangs in the balance. Also, Washington would want to outsmart China’s initiative to play a mediator role to end conflicts in the region, as exemplified by the truce it brokered between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

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