Forecasting the future: How accurate is our weather service?

Hands up how many of you have muttered about not trusting weather forecasts when the prediction is for “scattered showers” and not a drop of rain falls in your area?

“How the hell can we believe you?” has almost become a mantra when contemplating meteorologists’ assessments.

Weather forecasting has become more accurate – primarily because better computing power has enabled climate scientists to improve their meteorological models.

And, of course, genuine science knows no boundaries, so the sharing of knowledge around the world has improved the science of forecasting.

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Still, it is good to know that our weather boffins are on the ball – at least in terms of getting things right in their forecasts.

The South Africa Weather Service told the parliamentary portfolio committee on environment, forestry and fisheries they had achieved 99% accuracy in warnings in areas around airports and a 98% accuracy of weather reports around coastal ports.

The service has been through some difficult times lately, not least being the hack of its computers and website earlier this year – from which it has still not fully recovered.

In this time of uncertainty caused by climate change, this service has become even more crucial… and its high level of competence must be maintained.

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