‘End of shedding’? Experts have questions

There’s an old proverb which says: “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.”

In other words, if you’ve tricked me once, don’t expect me to fall for the same old lies the second time around.

That, in a way, would be how many South Africans would have reacted to the assurances made yesterday by Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa that load shedding is being brought under control.

After all, we’ve seen this movie before – and all the actors in it (from President Cyril Ramaphosa to ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula and others) have made promises and forecasts that have simply not materialised.

Ramokgopa would have us believe that it is the relentless execution of the “Energy Action Plan” which has produced “sustainable and enduring” results.

Yet the experts have questions.

For example, it was reported that when André de Ruyter ran Eskom, he was limited to spending R1 billion a month on diesel for the utility’s open-cycle gas turbine generators.

Ramokgopa has been cagey about how much is being spent on diesel at the moment.

There is also the reality that maintenance is, traditionally, reduced across the Eskom generation fleet over winter.

If this begins to escalate once the warmer weather arrives, then summer could once again be difficult.

Also, the improvement in load shedding, as it relates to overall electricity availability, has yet to be shown to be sustained in the medium, never mind the long, term.

Cynics might say that the ANC is going all out to eliminate most load shedding before the real campaigning starts for next year’s election.

A corollary to that is the fear that, once the election is won (and it is likely to be for the ruling party), darkness will once again descend as the looting of Eskom resumes.

It’s too early to celebrate. We’ve been fooled before.