Elections: KwaZulu-Natal is the political prize

It is no surprise that the two largest black political formations in South Africa, the ANC and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), have declared they will host their 2024 manifesto rallies in Durban’s Moses Mabhida stadium early next year.

Despite shocking incidents of political intolerance, such as the murder of politicians, KwaZulu-Natal remains an important hub of the political landscape as it is the second most populated province in the country.

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The ANC, EFF and the Democratic Alliance (DA) know that KwaZulu-Natal is not only the province with the second largest population, it also has the second largest economy after Gauteng.

The fight for the soul of KZN makes political sense to every political party contesting for power in the country.

KZN has what are termed floating voters – an electorate characterised by the potential to adjust to new political trends.

When Jacob Zuma became the ANC leader in 2007, following the party’s elective conference in Polokwane, many people switched from the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to the ANC, and KZN became the largest member base of the ANC.

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The EFF is continuing to spread its wings to brand itself as a party for all with a national footprint. The ANC has always had an electoral advantage because they had a presence in every part of the country.

However, the EFF’s arrival threatened the ANC’s popularity by taking it a bit further to appeal to other African countries such as Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe.

One of the principal reasons for the EFF and the ANC to host their political rallies in Durban is that this is going to be the first election without the IFP’s Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi.

The truth of the matter is that the IFP is a regional political formation that has a large following in KZN and Gauteng.

Now the IFP does not have a charismatic leader who will appeal to the electorate, hence some in the party are suggesting using the late Buthelezi’s image to campaign.

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Another important factor is the fact that the DA’s uMgeni mayor, Christopher Pappas, has created a severe panic, especially at Luthuli House, the ANC headquarters.

Pappas does not only appear to be speaking isiZulu, he also strikes many people as the kind of honest and ethical leader that they are desperate to have as their premier.

Zuma and his supporters are feeling annihilated and isolated by the ANC under Cyril Ramaphosa. So do not expect Zuma and his sympathisers to go all out to look for votes for the ANC.

That won’t happen. The supporters of the former eThekwini mayor, Zandile Gumede, who is facing corruption charges, will also not be working for the ANC as they believe that their leader is being persecuted and crucified over a factional position.

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The ANC needs to remember how they were able to keep Gauteng in their pocket during the 2019 general elections. They should be focusing on improving their support in Gauteng, rather than attempting to save what they literally cannot save.

The ANC could lose its outright majority in both KZN and Gauteng. The party has given up the failed attempts to have the Western Cape under their wings.

It is now quite clear that Capetonians prefer the DA to the ANC. The ANC understands that the Limpopo, North West, Northern Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State and Eastern Cape are largely conservative provinces which will most probably re-elect them, despite inferior service delivery.

The people from these six provinces would rather vote for a known enemy than an unknown enemy

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