EFF has a 2024 dilemma

There is a picture taken this weekend at the iconic FNB stadium during the Economic Freedom Fighters’ 10th-year anniversary rally.

It is a picture of EFF leader Julius Malema in his black EFF outfit and wearing a red beret, his fist raised high in the air with a stern look on his face.

A cursory glance at the same picture viewed from the side evokes the image of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. The moment the picture was taken looks so curated as though it was intentionally made to have Malema invoke images of Kim.

How does the EFF benefit from such an association?

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South Africa has to acknowledge that Malema and the EFF have managed to do what no other ANC breakaway party has done before: become a significant player in parliament. The EFF has rudely and unashamedly changed the face of opposition politics from both inside and outside parliament.

They threw decorum out the window to help the country and the ruling party remove former president Jacob Zuma from power. Their militant in-your-face approach to opposition politics has kept the ruling party on the back foot.

The EFF have not only made the ANC think twice about being dishonest in parliament, but they have made it fashionable for the normally restrained Democratic Alliance to take to the streets and march against whatever they choose to.

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In other words, the EFF have made themselves into an ever-present reality in the decision-making process of any political party in South Africa, including far-right parties, which have had to spend quite a bit of time in courts to try and restrain them.

In coalitions, the EFF have been the tail that wags the dog to such an extent that they have now got the ruling party into municipal agreements that have seen the ANC give up the mayorship of powerful metros like Joburg and Ekurhuleni. And that is the EFF’s dilemma in next year’s election.

There is no way they are going to grow their electoral support by more than a few percentage points and their ideological leanings have automatically disqualified them from being part of the DA-led moonshot pact.

Even if they grew their electoral support to 20%, which history suggests will not happen, what would the EFF do with that 20% without compromising themselves?

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The past 10 years have taught Malema that it is better to be within government and making real decisions daily, than simply trying to influence things from outside – hence their appetite for power in the metros. But national elections are a different kettle of fish.

A mere 20% is not enough to govern so to influence things from the inside and make their mark, they would have to get into bed with the ANC. The same ANC that Malema labelled thieves, corrupt, untrustworthy and deserving to be put in jail.

Alternatively, they could take their 20% and beg to be admitted to the DA-led moonshot pact. And this is where that image of a Malema looking like a Kim Jong-un matters: the broad church that is the moonshot pact will not accept a congregant who is fashioned after a dictator, whether by accident or design.

The EFF themselves (the others besides Malema) would most probably choose to rather disband than find themselves begging for a seat at a DA table.

And hence the dilemma: what can the EFF do with its 90 000 FNB Stadium-filling show of force after the election? The answer to that question could be “nothing.”

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The alternative is to start finding ways of compromising their hard ideological leanings without selling their souls and find ways of working with their sworn enemies.