Cyril is waging his war with hands tied

They say it is darkest just before the dawn. You could be forgiven for wondering if that is not apt for South African politics, because President Cyril Ramaphosa’s highly anticipated “New Dawn” looks – for the moment – further away than it has been since he first announced it earlier this year.

And this week, Ramaphosa himself acknowledged as much when he admitted that unity in the ANC is so fragile he has to tread very carefully when pursuing the New Dawn’s lofty promises of an end to corruption and a bringing to book all those involved in state capture.

This reality did not mean, Ramaphosa was quick to reassure South Africans, that he was a “weak” president. Yet, in the very act of saying that, he admitted he is not that powerful because his hands are tied by his commitment to the ANC and the need to put party unity above all else.

One has to feel some sympathy for Ramaphosa, while at the same time levelling criticism. Perhaps he should not have been so quick to promise massive change; perhaps he should have been more circumspect, especially given the victory over the Jacob Zuma camp at last year’s elective conference was such a narrow one.

However, it is also clearly evident that those around Zuma will not go down without a fight – and that some of them are right within the heart of Ramaphosa’s government.

In their rearguard action, they can cause all manner of distress to the ANC, possibly even mortally wounding it ahead of next year’s crucial national elections.

But the threat of the Zuma-ites is not merely to ANC unity; they can be a highly disruptive force for national unity at a time when that is decidedly wobbly.

Ramaphosa must move carefully; he has no other option.