Covid-19 can really hurt the economy

The corona virus, Covid-19, has just made its appearance in sub-Saharan Africa, with the announcement of a case in Nigeria. And a plane-load of South Africans is being brought home from Wuhan, the epicentre of the epidemic.

So, it seems likely that, one way or another, the virus will start making its presence felt in South Africa. But is that necessarily something to panic about?

On the surface, it would seem that the real death rate observed in China is not much more than would occur with regular influenza. Health experts do warn, however, that those with compromised immune systems are likely to be more at fatal risk than those who are normally healthy. Other risk groups identified are: smokers, diabetics, those with high blood pressure or cardiac disease and those with TB or Aids.

However, while the risk is nowhere near as high as for something like the ebola virus (which tends to kill its hosts faster than it can reproduce and infect large numbers of other people), the health authorities globally seem to be treating it with extreme caution. This, they say, is because Covid-19 does spread so easily and has such a long incubation period.

And therein lies the real threat that many South Africans have not yet tumbled to. It is not about how many cases are diagnosed, or even about how many fatalities there are. It is about the rules for dealing with infected people – and their contacts.

According to the Institute for Communicable Diseases, anyone who has been in contact with a Covid-19 sufferer must immediately “self-isolate” themselves at home for 14 days.

Whether South Africa has the capability – or even legal power – to enforce this is open to question.

But if it happens, the economy could grind to a halt. And that is the real risk.

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