Can Ramaphosa survive after abject leadership failure around Phala Phala?

“President Cyril Ramaphosa must immediately step aside.” This was Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s reaction during a radio interview after reading the Section 89 panel’s Phala Phala report.

It found evidence that President Cyril Ramaphosa may have committed serious misconduct and violated the law after he had millions of dollars in US currency, stashed on his game farm, and that he had started an off-the-books investigation after the money was stolen. 

The panel’s investigation has been so long in the making – after Speaker of Parliament Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula extended its 30-day deadline to November 30 – that the rumour mill had gone into overdrive on what it might say.

In the end, the report makes for grim reading in Parliament and the Union Buildings. It zooms in on the origin of the foreign currency and its underlying transaction. It concludes that Ramaphosa “has a case to answer” and may have committed a serious violation of the Prevention and Combating of Corrupt Activities Act and the constitution “by exposing himself to a conflict between his official responsibilities and his private business”. 

ALSO READ: Phala Phala findings ‘an immediate crisis’ for Ramaphosa’s political career

Plenty of embarrassing details will make ANC MPs squirm, if asked to defend them when the National Assembly meets on December 6 to debate the report and decide whether the president should face a hearing on whether Parliament should remove him from office. Ramaphosa could be removed from office if two-thirds of Parliament vote for impeachment – or he could be recalled as soon as December 15 by a resolution of an ANC NEC meeting.

What does it mean for Ramaphosa?

Now that this report has come out – just two weeks before the ANC’s elective conference? It could be the final nail in the coffin, as it throws Ramaphosa’s presidency into crisis and casts doubt on his future as South Africa’s leader. 

Now that the panel report has arrived, no one can claim to doubt the president’s precarious position. The only question is how long his foes, already smelling blood in the water, will allow him to continue as president.

It is unlikely that the situation will improve for him in the next two weeks, as he is not bold enough to use that time to shake up his cabinet to woo ANC MPs and conference delegates. For the time being, it appears more and more MPs are unwilling to stick with him, pointing to the impending impeachment process and the ANC conference as the crunch points.

The reason Ramaphosa’s allies believe he is unlikely to survive this challenge goes beyond the report’s contents. He looks set to resist anticipated attempts to remove him at this week’s ANC NEC meeting and might devise political and legal strategies to safeguard his presidency. The biggest reason he will still be in the Union Buildings at the start of the ANC conference is the lack of a unifying contender for the party presidency to replace him and lead the campaign for the 2024 national and provincial elections. 

This situation means a number of ANC MPs and party branches are backing him reluctantly ahead of the parliamentary debate and the conference. So, while this report may not change his position yet, it adds to concerns about the ANC’s miserable situation.

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Ramaphosa also faces two other investigations – one by the NPA and the other by the public protector – which could further jeopardise his future as South Africa’s leader.

Politicians will argue over facts and procedures, but the truth speaks to common sense. The president is likely to have committed serious misconduct and law violations. He believed that as long as he kept the alleged law violations under wraps, he would not need to account for them publicly. He was wrong.

We have been systematically lied to by politicians at a time when we needed and deserved to have total trust in our elected public representatives. Just as his possible rule-breaking put the nation’s stability at risk, his potential casual lawbreaking could jeopardise our national response to future allegations of corruption and abuse of office.

This is the context to read the panel’s report, which discloses how many law violations the president may have committed in light of all the information placed before it. The text and tables make for difficult reading because of the contrast between Ramaphosa’s denials and non-disclosures and South Africans’ mistrust and disappointment in Parliament. 

We choose who leads us. We need trustworthy leadership in the eyes of the people, not leadership that takes advantage of our goodwill. We need leadership that understands the sacrifices that ordinary South Africans make day in and day out. We need leaders that act in a manner that is consistent with their office rather than exposing themselves to a conflict between their official responsibilities and their private business. 

In the end, this has never been about the president’s private financial affairs, who is, after all, a victim of criminals, but the abject leadership failure that allowed the mishandling of a crime scene and the attempt to cover it up when challenged.

The panel’s report is measured and balanced, as you would expect from legal experts led by former Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo. It stops short of considering whether individual events did or did not breach the rules and the law, as its unprecedented finding is just an early step in any path to impeachment. Nevertheless, its findings are damning, and each event is juxtaposed against the prevailing rules at the time to devastating effect. 

ALSO READ: Dlamini-Zuma calls for Ramaphosa to step aside over damning Phala Phala report

In a statement released late on Wednesday, Ramaphosa reiterated that he had done nothing to violate his constitutional oath and spoke of “an unprecedented and extraordinary moment for South Africa’s constitutional democracy”. On Thursday, he pulled out of a question-and-answer session at the National Council of Provinces, while Deputy President David Mabuza and several cabinet ministers cancelled appointments.

Yes, the president continues to plead his innocence – but sometimes saying I have done nothing wrong is not enough when faced with a ferocious tide of calls for your resignation.

• Dr Nkosikhulule Nyembezi is a policy analyst and a human rights activist.