Uncontested top six is another Zuma ploy to dodge the bullet

Even those loyal to the organisation will concede that the African National Congress is more divided now than at any time in its history.

Ten years ago, in the run-up to its conference in Polokwane, there was division, but it was not as visible as it is now.

When Jacob Zuma deposed Thabo Mbeki as ANC president there in December 2007, there were many who were surprised.

Those who voted to oust the aloof and aristocratic Mbeki have been described as a “coalition of the wounded” – and the vote for Jacob Zuma was, in many ways, a protest vote.

The difference between then and the conference in December is that although Mbeki stepped aside and allowed the succession to continue, Zuma appears determined to continue his hold over the ANC.

Even if he steps down, his plan is that his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, takes over.

Another difference with Polokwane is that the opposition to a sitting ANC president is much more intense now than it was then and Zuma’s opponents are much more outspoken.

The resulting public comments have widened the rifts within the ANC, with at least two major camps forming – around Zuma and around deputy party president Cyril Ramaphosa, the other major candidate for the top post.

So, it is interesting that most of the ANC’s provincial leaders have called for the top six leadership positions not to be contested in December.

The move is an acceptance of Zuma’s plea earlier this year for political compromise in the interests of preserving party unity.

But the reality is that any form of compromise will avoid the tackling of the elephant-in-the-room issue, which is Zuma himself.

So, it appears that our wily president has successfully come up with another way of shielding himself from the final reckoning.