ANC’s reverence towards Putin is a puppy-dog devotion that defies logic

You only have one chance at toppling the tyrant. That’s an adage tested over the centuries. Mutiny is a life-or-death business. Failure usually triggers swift and fatal retribution.

So for President Vladimir Putin to grant the treasonous Yevgeny Prigozhin immunity from prosecution, safe passage to exile in Belarus and an On Golden Pond retirement is unusual to say the least.

Prigozhin is a particularly savage rebel and may well be certifiably insane. Putin, his erstwhile ally and now sworn adversary, has shown repeatedly that he, too, is no shrinking violet when it comes to cruelty and violence. So it’s likely the reckoning between the two men has just been postponed. There eventually has to be a winner and a loser.

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An excellent post-mutiny assessment in the US journal, Foreign Affairs, gets to the heart of Putin’s dilemma: that he is vulnerable to a palace coup because his reputation has been damaged by his lack of success in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s rebellion may prove to be the final puncture in Putin’s “autocrat mystique”.

The analysts may be right about most of the world. But at the southern end of Africa, the ANC’s reverence towards Putin, Russia and Marxist-Leninism is seemingly unassailable.

Although President Cyril Ramaphosa dresses it up as “neutrality” and being “non-aligned”, it is a puppy-dog devotion that defies logic and the self-interest, within the parameters of international law, should be at the heart of any nation’s foreign policy.

Whether through naivete or fear of riling, in an already fractious ANC, the ire of pro-Russia supporters, the Ramaphosa administration won’t be swayed. In contrast, Russia and China see the “non-alignment” of alliances like Brics as no more than a politically useful fig leaf to advance their national interests.

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On Wednesday, the Russian ambassador to SA told an ANC-sponsored “dialogue” on the Ukraine war there was no place for non-alignment.

“You cannot remain neutral, you will be punished by secondary sanctions [by the West].”

Instead of contesting the Russian interpretation, the ANC’s former chair of its international relations subcommittee just rolled over to have her tummy tickled.

South Africa, Lindiwe Zulu said, couldn’t adopt the approach argued for by ambassador unless it had been “endorsed” by the ANC’s policymakers.

That there is no overarching foreign policy principle at stake here was made more clear by Clayson Monyela, head of diplomacy at foreign affairs.

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“Non-alignment should never be confused with neutrality. We made a very deliberate decision based on our history.”

Monyela was emphatic that SA’s position was understood and accepted by the US and there was “no threat” of sanctions. He is probably right. For now. But SA would be wise to note that with the attempted mutiny, Russia’s attractiveness as an ally has been much reduced.

India, also a member of the “non-aligned” Brics, seems to understand better the subtle balancing required in a multipolar world.

Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned from Washington where he had signed multiple defence and technology deals. But then again, Modi – and China – voted in favour of a United Nations resolution which acknowledged Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. SA abstained. Whether the attempted mutiny has rung any SA alarm bells is too early to tell.

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The Brics summit in Joburg in August must now be causing even more consternation. Initially, Ramaphosa had hoped that Putin, facing arrest on an International Criminal Court warrant, might not attend. Now, Ramaphosa will be hoping the threat of mutiny encourages him to stay home.

But Putin might still come, if only to demonstrate to the world he remains firmly in power. And if a coup does occur, he at least knows his ANC pals will provide him with a very comfortable political asylum in sunny SA.