ANC still paddles in circles

One would have thought that the train smash that was the recent local government elections would have sobered up the politicians.

But delusion is a heady drug.

They’ve all managed to convince themselves that it was not as bad as the figures show. Take Fikile Mbalula who, despite his many obvious limitations, is influential in the ANC.

It’s always difficult to find anything intelligible in the utterances of Mbalula who, despite stiff competition, is consistently the most incoherent and inane person in the Cabinet. But since he is transport minister, a staunch ally of the embattled President Cyril Ramaphosa and was in charge of the party’s election campaign, one must persist.

During a post-election analysis of the party’s disastrous plunge in support, Ramaphosa’s chief sycophant was almost psychotically upbeat.

“To get what we got,” he said, “we should really be smiling.” The great stayaway, said Mbalula, is at the heart a polite request: “Can you please fix things?”

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This is more than just a politician putting a positive spin on things. So strong is the ANC narrative that its position as SA’s government is irreversible, that it seems inconceivable that “our people” might have other ideas.

There is a genuine incomprehension that the worst electoral performance in ANC history may not be a statistical hiccough. Instead, it seeks solace in the mantra that “our people” are merely sulking.

That is not how political disenchantment usually plays out. As likely, the ANC is momentarily adrift in slack water – that short period of stillness before the tidal stream reverses its direction.

Come the general election of 2024, the flow will be running powerfully against it. And it seems unlikely that a Ramaphosa administration that has been paddling in futile circles for four years will suddenly set a bold course.

The DA, too, is talking up a delusional storm. Carried away by unexpected wins in a couple of municipalities and the prospect of small-party coalitions giving it control of some of the metros, it is entertaining all kinds of David and Goliath fantasies.

The results proved, said leader John Steenhuisen, that the DA was the “real kingmaker”.

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Rather than “saving the ANC”, the DA intended to “save South Africa” by bringing the ANC below 50% in 2024.

Hence, based on principle and strategy, it would not enter into coalitions with the ANC, nor the EFF.

The “principle” part of the DA’s stance is nonsense. Principle did not stand in the way of its disastrous previous Johannesburg and Tshwane coalitions with the EFF. Explain, too, the principle behind wanting to deal with ActionSA, which is pursuing deals with the EFF?

Nor is this a particularly good strategy on the part of the DA. The best hope for the SA that Steenhuisen professes to want to save, would be to hasten a split in the ANC.

The ANC had signalled that they were open to a coalition deal. A coalition would have outraged the radical RET forces within the party and could very well have caused them to split off.

What a missed opportunity. The idea of limited DA/ANC coalitions may be fanciful. But it’s considerably less fanciful than the DA’s dream of downing the ANC with its slingshot in 2024.