President Cyril Ramaphosa and former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize are the leading contenders for the ANC presidency. Pictures: Gallo Images/Philip Maeta and Nigel Sibanda
How will the ANC look like post-December 2022 elective conference?
With only a few weeks left before the party elects its new leadership, President Cyril Ramaphosa and former health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize are likely to be the only two contenders for the top post.
However, the two presidential hopefuls present a challenge for the party as they both have pending investigative cases.
They are both still yet to account for their cases and this poses a great risk to the ANC because their respective baggage will continue to taint the party’s image and affect its renewal programme.
First, Ramaphosa is battling the Phala Phala farm theft scandal. Even after surviving calls for him to step aside during the national executive committee (NEC) meeting at the weekend, this doesn’t look good for Ramaphosa‘s reputation.
Second, Mkhize is faced with the cloud of Digital Vibes over a multimillion-rand contract that was irregularly awarded to his associates.
Although these are still ongoing cases, and if the parliamentary probe clears Ramaphosa later this week and he is not forced to step aside before the conference, it is likely that Ramaphosa or Mkhize will emerge as the ANC president.
But the question now arises: what kind of ANC will either one of them produce post the conference?
It is with no doubt that, if Ramaphosa is re-elected, nothing much will be different from his first term.
He will continue to fight against corruption and calling for unity, but it is uncertain if that unity would be realised.
He will continue to rally behind the mission of renewal of the ANC, but his efforts may not yield any results.
This is because his leadership will continue to be undermined by those who believe he is using state resources to purge them.
All in all, his presidency will continue to lead to several ANC resolutions to be left unimplemented, such as the formation of a state-owned bank and the expropriation of land without compensation policy.
With that happening, voters will continue to lose confidence in the ANC and a road will be paved for a possible Democratic Alliance-led coalition government come 2024 – if what happened in Ekurhuleni municipality last week will be a pattern.
But it is not all doom and gloom, with Ramaphosa at the helm: the Zondo commission report’s recommendations might be implemented and investors will continue to have confidence in the country.
Unlike Ramaphosa, Mkhize‘s presidency will be different.
His leadership might lead to an emergence of a strong ANC but the implementation of the Zondo commission report might not take place.
The report might find itself forgotten and left to gather dust in the shelves of history.
With Mkhize having the reigns, pressure to implement the 2017 ANC conference resolutions will intensify, he will be better positioned to unify the organisation and reconnect the ANC with its grassroots supporters.
He might give the ANC a fighting chance in the polls by securing victory in the 2024 general elections that is above 51%.
He can restore confidence in voters to go the polls and not stay away like in the local government elections last year. But that confidence will not be enough to translate into a two-thirds majority for the ANC due to the Digital Vibes scandal.
Voters will still be sceptical of him. If Mkhize were to become ANC president, Ramaphosa is likely to be recalled – as happened with Thabo Mbeki in 2008 and Jacob Zuma in 2018. But Ramaphosa may use the courts to hold on to power.
From past experiences, it is guaranteed that no matter who wins, the one who comes out as victor from the conference will make sure that their case grows cold and is not concluded.
But that ultimately will hurt the ANC.
For if the movement wants to restore itself and its image among the voters, the organisation will have to start taking itself seriously and deal with challenges head-on.
But the past weekend’s NEC meeting painted a worrying picture. The divisions at the meeting showed that this will not be the last time anyone – who has a dark cloud hanging over them – will contest for a top position in the ANC. And this shows the renewal of the ANC will still not be realised in the near future.
Mthembu is News24’s Young Mandela 2022 winner in the leadership category
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