Race between Mkhize and Ramaphosa on until last day of voting

With President Cyril Ramaphosa leading the race for ANC president at this month’s elective conference in Nasrec, this may seem like he has already bagged the second term. The 2 037 nominations he garnered may also discourage presidential hopeful Dr Zweli Mkhize.

Mkhize may still redeem himself

But the former health minister, who is behind Ramaphosa with 916 nominations, may still redeem himself. In reality, Ramaphosa has not surpassed the figure that will grant him more than 50% victory over Mkhize in terms of the total number of delegates to participate in the conference. There are still numbers from other contenders and unaccounted branches that Mkhize can lobby.

Therefore, the race between the two top contenders is still on and burning until the last day of voting. Both of them may stand a good chance if they woo certain players to their side.

ALSO READ: Zweli Mkhize likely to prevail

Back up

Mkhize can plead with other presidential hopefuls – the likes of Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu and Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – to throw their weight behind him.

Mashatile next deputy president

It is clear that no matter what happens, ANC treasurer-general Paul Mashatile will emerge as the next deputy president. Ramaphosa and Mkhize seem to have no choice but to consider Mashatile in return for his support.

Mashatile seems to be enjoying a lot of support compared to Justice and Correctional Services Minister Ronald Lamola and Defence Minister Thandi Modise.

Secretary-general?

As for secretary-general, it is likely former ANC KwaZulu-Natal secretary Mdumiseni Ntuli, or Transport Minister Fikile Mbalula may end up in the post. Hence, it will make sense for Mkhize to lobby Ntuli because of his numbers and the advantage that they are both from the same province.

Mbalula can align himself with Ramaphosa and convince former Gauteng MEC for health Dr Gwen Ramokgopa and former Eastern Cape premier Phumulo Masualle to support him.

Behind Ramaphosa 100%

For national chair, the incumbent chair and Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe is being challenged by Limpopo premier Stanley Mathabatha. It really doesn’t matter who wins because both candidates are likely to support Ramaphosa.

Like in 2017, women in the ANC will once more be marginalised and be given the post of deputy secretary-general. It is clear that former Cabinet minister Nomvula Mokonyane will be elected. It is likely that Mkhize will get Mokonyane’s support.

For treasurer-general, it is with no doubt that contender Bejani Chauke, one of CR17 campaign managers, will support Ramaphosa while Mkhize can be sure of support from Ekurhuleni ANC regional chair Mzwandile Masina. As for the ANC national spokesperson Pule Mabe, it is believed he might go with either Ramaphosa or Mkhize, provided he can feel where the wind blows.

Voter’s confidence

But it is not over, regardless of who becomes president and with whatever slate. The victors will have a lot of work in regaining voters’ confidence if the ANC is to win the 2024 general elections.

Ramaphosa will also have to account for the Phala Phala theft scandal and Mkhize for Digital Vibes scandal before 2024.

But until then, let us continue to watch the ANC leadership movie unfold. For anything can happen between now and the last day of the conference.

-Mthembu is News24’s Young Mandela 2022 winner in the leadership category

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