All dark clouds have silver linings

Let’s not beat around the bush: we’re up a creek without a paddle.

It’s hard to dream up a worse scenario than being confined to your home and forbidden to braai with friends and family.

I can’t even flee to the mall when my delightful significant other, the lovely Snapdragon, points out the reasons for her lockdown frustrations.

The health department seems unable to locate those who have been infected with the coronavirus, our economy is suffering, the mighty dollar is worth more than R18, a recession seems inevitable and people will lose jobs. And, to add insult to injury, Moody’s has downgraded us to junk status.

I had a long talk with a prominent economist, the ever-optimistic Dr Roelof Botha, on Monday, and this week I can echo his favourite phrase: “This dark cloud has several silver linings.”

We might get sick, we might even lose loved ones, but this pandemic, like every other in the history of mankind, will end.

Patients and stock exchanges will recover and the economy will grow again – possibly as soon as the third quarter of this year.

The Reserve Bank has cut the interest rate by a whopping 100 basis points, with more cuts likely. That put billions of rands back into the pockets of South Africans and reduces costs for businesses.

Load shedding seems to be forgotten for the time being and Eskom gets the opportunity to do maintenance on power stations.

The rand is getting clobbered by the strong dollar, but it is severely undervalued and will strengthen again.

Yes, Moody’s has downgraded us, but South African government securities and several blue chip stocks on the JSE offer exceptional value. No international fund manager can ignore this fact.

Uncle Cyril has already told Tito to kick-start the economy. This should include taking a knife to the salary bill – whether the unions like it or not.

Yes, I agree with you. We’re punch-drunk. We feel as exposed as the world’s red-headed stepchild. There’s teeth-gnashing, tears and curses as we’re grappling with this unpredictable foe.

But, very soon, we’ll stand up stronger than ever before and begin to rebuild. We’ll get into our cars, go to work and shop ’til we drop again. We’re South Africans, after all.

Dirk Lotriet.

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