A (very) short list of reasons to keep Zuma

As much as I would love to be rid of President Jacob Zuma by this time tomorrow, I also can’t help feeling conflicted at the idea he may soon be booted from Mahlamba Ndlopfu.

Yes, he’s been by far the worst president in democratic history. Yes, he and his handpicked cabinet and extended government of loyalists have set back the development of this country by perhaps more than a decade – particularly economically, but also socially and culturally.

Do they deserve to be fired en masse today? Yes, more than.

All the same, everything comes at a cost, and here are some of the main negatives (in my opinion) that I’m most worried about.

1. Julius Malema

The EFF leader will, if it’s at all possible, become even more smug and triumphalist if he achieves his greatest objective – revenge against Zuma. For years we will have to live with him and his followers telling us how it was ultimately thanks to them that #ZumaFinallyFell.

This won’t be completely true, of course, because other opposition parties, particularly the DA, have also played a central role, and it was UDM leader Bantu Holomisa who brought the application at the Constitutional Court, where its ruling opened the way for the secret ballot in the first place.

If Zuma goes today, Malema will be one of the big winners, and talks are even likely to start between him and the ANC about having them grow closer once again.

Ultimately, Malema wants to be president of this country. The ANC remains the best vessel to take him there and the ANC might need him to repair the devastating damage they have sustained (especially if they vote out their own leader in a motion brought by the opposition).

There’s still every indication (despite the constant river of charm and growing maturity from Malema over the past few years) that he will be an even worse president than Zuma – nationalising and occupying everything in sight, “not being able to prevent the slaughter of whites” and keeping those pesky Indians in line – so forgive me for not being overly excited at the prospect.

2. We are almost rid of Zuma anyway

The ANC will be electing a new president in December and there’s no reason they won’t be able to recall Zuma from government in less than five months, just as they did with Thabo Mbeki. It’s about time that the ANC align the terms of its party leader with those of the national president, and this could be an opportunity to avoid the “two centres of power” scenario the ruling party is still so worried about.

Many analysts appear to agree that Zuma is currently very weak in any case and can probably not do all that much damage any more. That may just be an expression of hope, because Zuma can always do more damage (just ask your little friend the rand). But still, he wasn’t able to install his friend Brian Molefe as finance minister, so the Zuma batteries may finally have run out of juice and can no longer shock us.

We need to give the ANC a chance to sort out its own mess. A parliamentary reprieve would be too easy. If they aren’t able to sort it out, then the odds of them being voted out in 2019 increase substantially. And they will deserve to be voted out.

3. Secrecy from public servants is just wrong

The best governments are open, transparent ones. While we may be cheering the secret ballot now because the ends supposedly justify the means, in the long run we want a parliament where decisions are taken accountably. If this vote succeeds, then we are likely to have more secret ballots in future, and when politicians are given an opportunity to factor such a thing into their machinations for power, then trust me, they will find a way to abuse and exploit it for evil ends.

Wait till there’s an excellent president in charge and fighting corruption, and a National Assembly packed with a majority who are enjoying the benefits of a patronage state. Would we still be so keen on secret ballots then?

4. ‘Mini Zuma’

It may appear at first sight that the spectre of a Zuma dynasty in the shape of the woman the SABC refers to as “Nkosazana Mini-Zuma” will also be less of a certainty if Zuma goes today.

But the law of unintended consequences may come back to bite us, because there could be a huge backlash in the ANC and it could very easily strengthen her hand. When Mbeki fired Zuma in 2005, that only created even more populist support for the man, a wave that swept him into power in 2007.

Dlamini-Zuma will be waiting in the wings for December and will doubtlessly try to turn whatever happens today to her advantage.

The point is that it would be wrong to see a successful vote of no confidence as the end of the Zumas.

Therefore, is it really worthwhile?

But let’s not forget one of the biggest positives, of course

Obviously, there are many reasons why a vote against Zuma today will be wonderful, and that would be a much longer list if that’s what this column were about.

We must mention, though, that the best part of this will be that the project of state capture by the Gupta family will start to unravel and whatever plans the Zuptas were up to – thinking they still had a lot of time to tie up loose ends and scuttle for safety – will be dealt a severe blow.

The prospect of Zuma finally facing prosecution may finally turn out to be more than a mirage. Imagine.

Charles Cilliers, Citizen.co.za digital editor