Rocky road for SA-US ties as Rubio takes over?

The road ahead could be rocky for SA-US relations as a hawkish Republican senator, Marco Rubio, takes over as secretary of state in the incoming Trump administration next year.

Rubio is likely to take South Africa on over its close relationship with China, which he previously said he “hated with all his heart”.

He has taken hard-line positions on South Africa’s allies – China, Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.

Observers believe he could influence Trump to take an even harder policy approach on his anti-China trade wars and extend the circle to include China’s allies.

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SA could be punished for China stance

The Biden administration was soft on South Africa and it resisted pressure from Republican congressmen to punish the country for its stance on Russia and Taiwan including removing it from Agoa (African Growth and Opportunity Act) – but he opted for dialogue with Pretoria.

Rubio’s focus recently was on Taiwan about which the senator from Florida had been making noise since South Africa asked the Taipei Liaison Office in Pretoria to move to Johannesburg.

Pretoria informed the Taiwan representative in April to vacate the capital by the end of October and move to the country’s economic hub because Pretoria was reserved for foreign embassies.

This was seen as unfair since Taiwan’s office had been allowed to operate in the city since 1998.

Taiwan has maintained representative offices in the capital cities of many countries with which it does not enjoy diplomatic ties, including Russia, India and Brazil.

Even before he knew Trump would win and he would become his foreign affairs chief, Rubio cautioned South Africa against allowing itself to be manipulated by China over Taiwan.

Days before Trump’s victory, he wrote on X: “The South African government is making a grave mistake by caving to Beijing’s demands. South Africa should not fall victim to Communist China’s diplomatic bullying tactics.”

In his anti-China approach, he has been targeting the Communist Party of China with venomous words, accusing it of being behind South Africa’s decision to expel Taiwan from the capital.

All his tweets on X were accompanied by the hashtag #ExposingTheCCP.

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SA-US relations precarious while we await Rubio response

Last week, Taiwan’s representative in the US briefed Rubio about the South African government’s decision and his response was awaited.

But it may not be immediate as the Trump administration will take over power after his swearing as the 47th president of the USA on 20 January.

Taiwan is refusing to move out of Pretoria, accusing South Africa of violating an agreement reached when the country’s diplomatic status was downgraded to a liaison office in 1997.