Politics of race in US election

Although black and white voters were a significant part of the electorate to determine the outcome of the US presidential elections, the Hispanic and Asian-American voters form a crucial element for both candidates to grow their tallies.

While the whites are the natural majority of the US electorate followed by African-Americans, no single group dominated the process and the non-whites combined are the real voting majority bloc. But the college votes play a central role in the final tally.

The whites historically vote Republican party and the African-American for the Democratic party, therefore candidates must fight for the votes of the Hispanic and Asian-American eligible voters. However, it all depends of voter turn-outs. According to the Pew Research Centre, based in Washington DC, the partisan alignment did not tell the whole story when it comes to voting patterns.

The centre said voter turnout rates – or the share of US citizens ages 18 and older who cast a ballot – also vary widely across racial and ethnic groups. The centre’s senior researcher: social and demographic trends, Ruth Igielnik, said white adults historically have had the highest rate of voter turnout. About two-thirds of eligible white adults (65%) voted in the 2016 election.

She said their survey data showed that black adults had also historically had relatively high rates of voter turnout, though typically slightly lower than white adults. There was an exception to this pattern in 2008 and 2012, when black voter turnout matched or exceeded that of the whites. By contrast, Asian and Hispanic adults have had historically lower voter turnout rates, with about half reporting that they voted in 2016.

“White and black adults are also more likely than Hispanic and Asian adults to say that they are registered to vote,” Igielnik said.

When The Citizen asked her which group predominantly influenced the overall outcomes, said all racial groups were important.

“It is difficult to say who matters the most or who decides the outcomes in the election because all voters are important as each contributes a significant number of votes that cannot be ignored,” Igielnik said.

The centre’s data showed that non-white eligible voters accounted for more than three-quarters of the total US electorate growth since 2000. This makes the minorities a lot more significant voting bloc that both candidates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden must take seriously towards Election Day on 3 November, if they are to win.

“The non-white voting population has played a large role in driving the growth in the nation’s electorate. From 2000 to 2018, the nation’s eligible voter population grew from 193.4 million to 233.7 million – an increase of 40.3 million. Voters who are Hispanic, African-American, Asian or another race or ethnicity accounted for more than three-quarters (76%) of this growth,” Igielnik said.

Pew Research Centre survey data spanning more than two decades shows that the Democratic Party maintains a wide and long-standing advantage among African-American, Hispanic and Asian-American voters. Among white voters, the partisan balance has been generally stable over the past decade, with the Republican Party holding a slight advantage.

The most significant group to watch in this election and in future are the Hispanics. This is even more important for Biden because historically, Hispanics along with African-American and Asian registered voters leaned towards his party.

Trump and his team could not afford to ignore this electoral bloc either if they are to defeat Biden convincingly. According to the research centre, in all 50 states, the share of non-Hispanic white eligible voters declined between 2000 and 2018, with 10 states experiencing double-digit drops in the share of white eligible voters. During that same period, Hispanic voters have come to make up increasingly larger shares of the electorate in every state.

“These gains are particularly large in the Southwestern US, where states like Nevada, California and Texas have seen rapid growth in the Hispanic share of the electorate over an 18-year period. These trends are also particularly notable in battleground states – such as Florida and Arizona – that are likely to be crucial in deciding the 2020 election.”

Igielnik added that in Florida, two-in-10 eligible voters in 2018 were Hispanic, nearly double the share in 2000. And in the emerging battleground state of Arizona, Hispanic adults made up about one quarter (24%) of all eligible voters in 2018, up eight percentage points since 2000.

“The ways in which these demographic shifts might shape electoral outcomes are closely linked to the distinct partisan preferences of different racial and ethnic groups,” Igielnik said.

The substantial percentage point increase of voters who are not white as a share of the country’s overall electorate was largely driven by second-generation Americans – the US-born children of immigrants, as well as immigrants naturalising and becoming eligible to vote.

– ericn@citizen.co.za

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