New start for Botswana, now comes the hard part

Botswana’s new government will have to hit the ground running after booting out a party in power for six decades on a tidal wave of supporters expecting change, analysts say.

“End of an error,” quipped a headline in the independent Mmegi newspaper in its coverage of the whirlwind change of power in which lawyer Duma Boko was sworn in on Friday, just two days after a landslide win in general elections.

“He is the tip of the arrow that slayed the 58-year-old behemoth of Botswana politics,” it said.

Boko’s left-leaning Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) had “excited the youth and their message seemed to resonate with the poor and working”.

UDC victorious in Botswana elections

The group took 36 seats in the parliament, five more than needed for a majority, according to a tally finalised on Saturday.

The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had held a firm grip on power since independence from Britain in 1966, took only six, its lowest score ever.

It was a stunning rebuke that few had seen coming, let alone outgoing president Mokgweetsi Masisi, 63, who said when he conceded defeat on Friday: “We got it wrong big time in the eyes of the people.”

“This is very much an unanticipated seismic political change,” said independent political analyst Olopeng Rabasimane.

“Change is here,” agreed a headline in The Voice newspaper, which said that the implications of Boko’s presidency, as laid out in the UDC’s campaign pledges, could be far-reaching and offered the potential to transform Botswana.

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The UDC’s ambitious offerings include creating up to 500 000 jobs and building 100 000 houses in five years, cutting water and electricity tariffs by 30% and introducing health insurance for every citizen.

In his acceptance speech on Friday, Boko, 54, said he wanted to introduce a minimum wage of 4 000 pula ($300) and to stabilise relations with partners in the diamond industry while diversifying the economy off its dependence on the international diamond market.

Key concerns expressed by voters in the nation of 2.6 million people on Wednesday were Botswana’s unemployment rate of around 27% and the large gap between the country’s rich and its many poor.

The economy was shaken under the government of one-term Masisi by plummeting diamond sales, the mainstay of Botswana’s revenues.

Cold shower

Boko’s administration will have to confront a hard reality when it takes office, said Keith Jefferis, an independent economist and former Botswana government official.

“They’re coming into power at a time when government finances are in a very, very bad state, partly because previous governments have been overspending for years,” he told AFP.

“And on top of that, the diamond market is in a dreadful state so there really is not a lot of money available for ambitious promises.”

The new team will have to “very quickly make some quite dramatic budget cuts… before they even start thinking about how to pay for all their ambitious promises,” he said.

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Expectations are high after the overwhelming endorsement of the UDC at the election, where 80% of more than one million registered voters cast their ballots.

“For Boko and the UDC, the mandate is loud and clear; deliver on your promises, or risk to suffer the same fate as President Masisi and the BDP,” said Rabasimane.

“In all fairness, the task before him is mammoth, but not insurmountable. The ball is in his court, and clock is ticking,” he said.

The revolution was “gifted to the nation by the young people of this country,” said Mmegi.

“The incoming government should know that these young people have put them on notice. If they do not work for them in a meaningful way, they are going to send them home in 2029.

“The new leaders do not have much time. The need to hit the ground running.”