Mozambique insurgents unlikely to come to negotiating table, says expert

So complex is the protracted war in Mozambique’s gas-rich Cabo Delgado province – which has led to several brutal deaths of local villagers and billions lost to economic instability – that a leading security expert has ruled out prospects of President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi forcing the insurgents to a negotiating table.

Despite the presence of the French-backed Rwandan forces and the SADC Mission in Mozambique (Samim) – comprising Mozambican and South African soldiers – Jasmine Opperman, an analyst with the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project (Acled), spoke about the difficulties.

These include:

• Nyusi’s government and soldiers lack credibility among villagers;
• French-funded Rwandan forces are deployed in a small area to protect the strategic corridor, and are in Mozambique only to protect the economic interests of their financiers – French firm Total and the liquefied natural gas project (LNG) project;
• Samim is not well funded by an international body like the European Union (EU); and
• Samim forces have a vast area to protect in a complex bush battlefield.

“While a political solution is ideal, as the war on terror won’t simply bring a quick package of a solution to the crisis, the environment is not conducive for talks to take place,” Opperman said.

“Negotiations hinge on who are you going to talk to, what are you going to talk about and what compromises are going to be made,” she said.

Locals who have been exposed to brutal attacks, living in constant fear, with husbands beheaded and women raped, do not trust Mozambican forces to provide them with security.

“Samim could face an ever-evolving credibility crisis.

“Rwandans have moved into an area where we are seeing smaller cell presence of insurgents, allowing them to respond quickly to any attacks,” Opperman said.

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The only problem is that Rwanda is serving French interests. She said the environment has to be created, sustained and made possible to force the insurgents into some sort of dialogue.

“That is going to be a long-term process and government has to establish social cohesion and trust first– sadly far from happening.”

Added Opperman: “Will the insurgents agree to a dialogue?” She said with their current momentum and capacity, they could stretch the resolve of Samim through continuing to instil fear among villagers. SADC and the Samim forces are also serious impeded when it came to funding factors.

“If we now see SA forces being deployed in Cabo Delgado, it is not an additional deployment, but merely in accordance with the technical committee’s recommendation.

“It is in line with a commitment to deploy 1 500 soldiers on a rotational basis,” she said.

“What we are seeing is not additional deployments that are expanding capability, but merely the implementation of recommendations.

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The Acled expert said it was an open question how EU assistance would evolve, as “we have not seen any direct support or financing”.

Meanwhile Rwanda is being financed by France, making it easier for them to sustain and expand their presence to well over 2 000 soldiers. The same cannot be said about the cash-strapped Samim,” Opperman said.

– brians@citizen.co.za