Afghan crisis: Effects will spill over to Africa

Numerous political and defence commentators have expressed their horror and dismay at how the so-called nation building efforts in Afghanistan have played out.

Having never been involved there, I cannot comment on the situation in that country, either prior to its collapse, or now.

That said, it is certain Africa will suffer a spillover effect from the rapid fall of Afghanistan. Despite the collapse of the armed forces and their government, there are many lessons that can be learned from the chaos.

However, many of the lessons from the time of Alexander the Great were never considered and the impact of failing to learn from history has been devastating on that country.

It is obvious the hasty US/Nato withdrawal was a geopolitical decision that ignored the intelligence predications and warnings.

However, when a political agenda and narrative discard intelligence, the consequences are bound to be disastrous.

A concern I have often expressed, at great cost to myself, is that foreign armies tasked to train, especially African armies, cannot – and should not – view them through a Western lens.

Trying to mould an African army in their likeness will result in problems and bring about numerous unintended consequences.

Afghanistan perfectly illustrates this folly but so, too, do many African armies that have had the benefit of Western training.

The results have been less than impressive.

Given the large amount of equipment and money left behind in Afghanistan, one can safely assume some of this will eventually find its way to Africa and especially to those Islamist groups that have aligned themselves with Islamic State.

Time will tell how severe the Afghanistan conundrum will impact on Africa, but impact it will.

• Barlow is a political and defence advisor to several African governments, frequently lectures at defence colleges and universities and takes part in defence and security-related conferences and seminars in Africa and beyond. He is the author of three best-sellers and has made numerous chapter contributions to academic works.