Upcoming Limpopo conferences could influence ANC leadership race  

As the Limpopo ANC gears up for its upcoming regional elective conferences next month, the meetings have been touted as a “make-or-break test” for the province’s choice of candidate to succeed Jacob Zuma as the next leader of the African National Congress (ANC) later this year.

The province’s underestimated backing for deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa is set to be put to the test as divisions grow over the party’s succession debate.

News24 reported on Sunday that the province could be deeply split over who to support between Ramaphosa and outgoing African Union commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

Limpopo was apparently widely expected to back Ramaphosa to succeed Zuma when his term ends in December as ANC leader because of to his “links” to the province despite growing up in Soweto, according to the report.

But Ramaphosa’s critics in the northern province aren’t impressed with him.

A national executive committee (NEC) member lobbying for Dlamini-Zuma to take up party reins from her ex-husband told the news website, “they are closely monitoring the regional conferences, describing the battle in Sekhukhune, Waterberg, Mopane, Vhembe and Peter Mokaba as ‘very bad’.”

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The NEC member said the divisions within the regions are “quite deep and very bad” with regional party chairpersons that emerge victorious from the conferences potentially having the power to determine whether Ramaphosa or Dlamini-Zuma gets the province’s backing going into the December national elective conference.

There have also been claims of intimidation in the processes leading up to the regional conferences.

The ANC Youth League (ANCYL) reportedly alleged this week that its provincial secretary was forced to sign-off on a branch general meeting at gunpoint in Waterberg on Wednesday.

Embattled Limpopo Premier and ANC provincial chairperson Stan Mathabatha confirmed the tensions to News24.

He said provincial party leaders had been sent to Waterberg to assist with the tensions but he was unaware of the recent incident, as claimed by the youth league.

According to another source, Limpopo is likely to go to the December conference divided, as none of the factions will emerge with an outright majority – posing a disadvantage for Ramaphosa becuase Dlamini-Zuma is seen as a frontrunner in the leadership race in Limpopo.

Dlamini-Zuma earlier this month got the endorsement of the ANC Women’s League and she is said to have the support of the so-called “Premier’s League”, an informal ANC lobby group purportedly led by the premiers of Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, North-West and Mpumalanga linked to Zuma.

Some of the provincial executive committee members had strong ties to the enigmatic league and are said to be pushing for Dlamini- Zuma to get the majority votes from the province, a local leader told the news website.

Zuma was expected  on Sunday to address the ANC’s provincial 105th anniversary celebrations in Burgersfort – the party’s biggest region in Limpopo – in a move to “test the waters” building-up to the December conference.

However another region, Sekhukhune, is said to be fully behind Ramaphosa, it is also apparently Mathabatha’s stronghold.

The premier is said to be behind CR17 [Cyril Ramaphosa 2017], a code used to for Ramaphosa’s presidential campaign.

Vhembe district is likely seen as supporting the deputy president as well, while Waterberg and Mopani might throw their weight behind Dlamini-Zuma, according to the report.

The bigger region of Peter Mokaba is said to be a tough battleground for both candidates, as no clear victor can be identified.

It is interesting to note that the regional conferences will also determine who becomes the provincial chair to replace Mathabatha, who’s been facing opposition from some party members who want him out of his job.

But Limpopo had yet to start processes around the 54th national conference.