Load shedding bumbling likely to be ANC’s 2024 Achilles heel

Amid consistent blackouts continuing to cripple the economy, with many South Africans left without any alternative energy source, political analysts yesterday warned that, should load shedding continue, the ANC could be dealt a heavy blow in next year’s national polls and be forced to enter into a coalition government with the opposition.

Eskom put the country into stage three load shedding yesterday “due to the breakdown of two generating units and the delay in returning to service three generating units from planned maintenance” until further notice.

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This as a leading economist warned that productivity – a function of capital, labour and technology – was set to be the biggest casualty, which could have a further adverse impact on the country’s economy.

Chris Yelland, managing director of EE Business Intelligence, blamed “failure by leaders at the highest level to understand and respond to the challenges facing international and local energy and to adapt accordingly”.

“Over-complicated, outdated oversight and governance arrangements by an excessive number of government departments and agencies are plainly evident, together with inadequate policy, regulatory, planning and oversight capacity for the electricity supply and distribution industries,” he said.

Uncertainty

Yelland said ongoing uncertainty, combined with mixed messages from government, added to “the toll, which regular load shedding is taking on economic growth, business confidence and investment”.

According to Yelland, last year’s intensity of load shedding to protect the national grid “reached new record highs”, with data indicating that Eskom failed to deliver an estimated 11 797 GWh of energy during 3 775 hours of rolling power cuts.

“There is clearly a need for more consistent, coherent and well-articulated energy, electricity policies and strategies in South Africa,” he said.

Independent political analyst Sandile Swana said a coalition government could usher in a solution to the energy woes.

“The energy crisis has been taking shape since 1998 when [former energy minister] Penuel Maduna warned the ANC Cabinet about the coming load shedding.

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“The ANC has since then not been able to prevent or to stop load shedding,” said Swana.

Political analyst Dr Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said the public hearings of the National Energy Regulator of South Africa’s (Nersa), which started in September to deliberate on Eskom’s tariff application for 2024/25 “have caused much anxiety”.

“If Nersa approves the application, it will result in annual tariff increases of about 32% in 2023, and 9% in 2024.”

Peter Baur, University of Johannesburg associate professor of economics, stressed the uzse of technology, saying: “For productivity to be realised, a consistent supply of reliable, preferably renewable and cheap energy is needed.