It’s not too late for SA to duck the Covid-19 third wave

Despite an increase in Covid-19 infections in the recent weeks, South Africa still has an opportunity to prevent a third wave of the coronavirus which could likely lead to restrictions on movements, gatherings and another alcohol ban.

Covid-19 cases have increased by 46% in the past week, as opposed to the preceding seven days, with Covid-19 related deaths increasing by 18.22% in the same period.

According to the South African Medical Research Council’s (SAMRC’s) weekly estimated excess deaths, the country had an excess of 158,499 natural deaths from 3 May 2020 to 8 May 2021, with 1,140 excess deaths recorded on 2 May 2021 as compared to 318 confirmed Covid-19 deaths that day.

While these figures are worrisome, the resurgence dashboard by the South African Covid-19 Modelling Consortium, which is updated three times a week, shows that the country has not yet reached the third wave threshold, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said.

“We want to assure South Africans that we have not yet hit the third wave. However, we are at risk and we hence need to be on heightened vigilance as a country,” Mkhize said.

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Not too late to stop the surge

The country does, however, have a chance to prevent a third wave by paying attention to safety protocols, said  Professor Ian Sanne. member of the ministerial advisory committee (MAC).

“The only way to prevent that is if people pay attention to social distancing and masking, and pay attention to having diagnostics made when they appear to have symptoms of Covid-19. I think that South Africa has an opportunity to respond and prevent a third wave.”

Once the resurgence hits, the first thing to be imposed would be restrictions on gatherings, including religious and sports events, Sanne said.

“Those restrictions depend on the severity of the third wave and I believe it would be a progressive increase in movement restrictions, alcohol and increase in surveillance of travellers returning to South Africa.”

“One of the first things we would do is increase restrictions on gatherings in total, not just religious, but also night clubs and sports events.”

These restrictions are likely to see pushback from the economic and religious sectors, which could lead to the government being hesitant to impose them, Stellenbosch University epidemiologist Dr Jo Barnes said.

“I have a feeling they will call it on a day-to-day basis, but the total enormous lockdown is over. I am worried the economy and religious gatherings will weigh heavily on the government, that the third wave will come and the government will be hesitant to put restrictions in place,” Barnes said.

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rorisangk@citizen.co.za