High levels of tension in SA to continue unabated

The so-called “total shutdown” protest actions, which started in Mpumalanga on Wednesday, before spreading to parts of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) on Thursday morning, should not come as a surprise, according to police expert, Johan Burger.

Today’s shutdown in parts of KZN, comes on exactly the day, a year ago, when former President Jacob Zuma was incarcerated for his refusal to appear before the Zondo Commission, which at the time was still investigating alleged state capture.

Zuma’s incarceration was also followed by the July unrest last year, where shops and properties were vandalized and torched in KZN and in parts of Gauteng.

Speaking to The Citizen, Burger said it is important to draw a distinction between last year’s unrest and current protest action, believed to be over the rising cost of living.

“Last year’s unrest was more of an organised event by forces who appeared to be aligned to Jacob Zuma.

“What we are witnessing now, is different community organisations who are dissatisfied about a number of issues, ranging from lack of service delivery, rising fuel prices and they are more sporadic and geographically located,” he said.

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However, Burger warned that tensions in the country at the moment, are on the rise and that the situation is likely to remain unchanged for some time.

“These rising levels of tension are also creating a condition for the increase in public protests and I get worried about the ability of the police to deal with this, given the fact that we still don’t have a permanent head of intelligence in the police,” said Burger.

The Public Order Police division also remains under scrutiny since the 2012 Marikana massacre.

Asked if it’s a coincidence that the the current shutdown is happening at a time of Zuma’s incarceration anniversary, Burger responded: “There is a good possibility that some of the July unrest instigators might also exploit the current situation in the country.

“Then there’s also the issue of some of those exposed in the Zondo report, aligned to Zuma, have an interest in preventing the normal course of justice, who are prepared to go to the extreme,” Burger added.

Political analyst, Professor Andre Duvenhage, is of the view that there is no doubt that there are well orchestrated attempts to derail political processes regarding government and elites in government, specifically President Ramaphosa.

“We have seen incidents in KZN, the attacks on trucks and strong rumours of mobilisation of support and maybe even some people are talking about the possibility of violence similar to what we have seen during July last year.

“We have the direct attacks on the president and I’m not saying the president is innocent, but the fact of the matter is Arthur Fraser and his people are without any doubt people with an agenda. I have listened to people like Ace Magashule clearly saying he is not going to step aside, he’s going to fight, so I’m expecting a fierce battle in these terms,” Duvenhage said.

He warned of a very unstable environment over the next few months, probably even closer to the 2024 general election.