Green energy ‘not suitable for transmission on Eskom grid’ – expert

Privately sourced electricity – including from renewable sources – is set to make a big impact on South Africa’s power crisis, helping to eradicate load shedding by the end of next year.

This week, wind generation kicked in to help reduce load shedding by one full stage.

Cold fronts and their accompanying high winds in the Western and Eastern Cape produced – relatively consistently – two gigawatts (or 2 000 megawatts) of power.

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This is the equivalent of more than twice the power generated by the nuclear generator at Koeberg, which is currently offline for maintenance. It translated into the reprieves from load shedding last weekend. And Engineering News reported this week that as much as 66GW of renewable energy projects were in various stages of development.

This potential generation would more than double the current national grid capacity of just over 40GW, although not all projects are considered deliverable.

Yet, projects with an output of 18GW are at an “advanced stage”, according to the “2023 South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey” compiled by Eskom in collaboration with the South African Wind Energy Association and the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association.

Eskom on load shedding

Engineering News quoted Eskom senior manager for strategic planning Ronald Marais as saying the survey would help grid planning to ensure new renewable power is connected as soon as possible to “reduce, and eventually eliminate, load shedding”.

Eskom has already reduced load shedding from stage 6 to stage 3, despite predictions we might be facing stage 8 during winter. Stage 8 fears are probably overblown … for now, at least.

ALSO READ: Eskom working on revising load shedding stages up to 16

During daytime hours this week, there is no scheduled load shedding. The reason for load shedding overnight until the end of the morning peak is due to the large differential between the daytime baseload demand and the peak. In winter, this is extreme; in summer the curve is far flatter.

Improved generation performance

Currently, data for June – albeit only one week in – points to a much-improved generation performance. The energy availability factor, a measure of how much generation capacity is online, is above 60% for the first time since last August.

Last month, an assessment by Rand Merchant Bank/Morgan Stanley predicted that in as little as two years, Eskom could become the minority supplier of electricity, overtaken by other suppliers, including big companies and rooftop solar installations.

Eskom renewal

Political economist Daniel Silke said: “If we can get our renewable sector up and running within the grid to this extent, we can begin a process of renewal.”

Renewables, he said, would help reduce the pressure on Eskom’s coal-fired power stations, which “will absolutely provide a much-needed degree of positivity with regards to the domestic economy and also give some assurances to foreign investors that there is a turnaround in energy supply.”

ALSO READ: ‘Surviving winter’ – Experts to work at four power stations to manage load shedding

Silke said alongside an overhaul of energy, there had to be “good policies in general, good governance, lack of corruption”.

“If we can sufficiently integrate this level of renewable activity into our grid – and there is a question mark about whether we can technically achieve this level of integration over a short period of time – then, indeed, we can perform, I think, a major turnaround.

“It is clear the economy, although not in recession, is very, very weak, but it still has some oxygen left to take advantage of any kind of renewable advancements.”

He said investors will be attracted to the thought of private energy, remarking: “I think investors will be attracted to anything that is distanced from what the state can deliver.”

What is happening in terms of new generation projects is “an indirect move away from a state-owned enterprise like Eskom to the private sector”.

ALSO READ: How Eskom managed to tame load shedding

“There may be a political debate about who controls these big providers and in the ANC, there’s still disagreement about whether the private sector really should be allowed such leeway, or whether the state must have a controlling interest,” Silke said.

Renewable energy

Economic and energy analyst Tshepo Kgadima poured cold water on the prospect of renewable energy being practical, claiming it was “not suitable for transmission on Eskom’s high-voltage grid and everyone at Eskom and in government know this fact of physics all too well”.

Silke acknowledged the “technical difficulties” of integrating renewables and private power into the national grid, “a stumbling block which could delay any kind of economic recovery for some time to come”.

-Additional reporting by Moneyweb

– reitumetsem@citizen.co.za