Elections 2024: What global elections this year mean for SA

As half the world population and at least 64 countries go to the polls this year, there is much to consider in the way international relations will be affected.

And yet local politics in South Africa – and by extension the lives of ordinary South Africans – will also be influenced by these broader events.

‘The election year’

From the first regular elections of post civilian-uprising Sri Lanka to coup-ridden Guinea-Bissau, to the estimated 11% turnout in Iran and the fourth term victory of ‘unopposed’ Vladimir Putin in Russia, it is indeed a bumper year for the ballots, with Time Magazine suggesting 2024 be called ‘the election year’.

Egypt, Mali, Senegal, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, Taiwan, Pakistan, and both Koreas have already had their elections, along with others, while India’s six-week affair is ongoing.

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Some of the biggest booth-busters are still on the cards: the United States of America (November), United Kingdom (date TBC), and even the European Union (EU) in June.

In Africa one should also look out for Togo (29 April), Madagascar (29 May), Mauritania (June), Rwanda (July), Algeria (October), Botswana (October), Mozambique (October), Namibia (November), Tunisia (November), Ghana (December), South Sudan (December).

How South Africa could be affected

Political analyst, Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said South Africans should consider what the threat of re-election of corrupt and incompetent politicians around the world would mean for the country and our democracy.

“Some recent elections in several countries have offered a chance for nascent democracies to take hold, while others have merely strengthened entrenched regimes,” he said, referring to Russia, Iran and Egypt, among others.

“However, in an era of political upheaval, any of them could add to heightened geopolitical tensions that could affect South Africa as a member of the expanded Brics more than before.

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“Already, it is clear that threats to democracy abound, and not just in countries with checkered election histories, as even robust democracies are on the ropes, grappling with voter apathy, the exclusion of women and youth socioeconomic and political participation, efforts to suppress opposition groups, and the spread of sophisticated disinformation campaigns.”

He referred to Iran, where many citizens protested by staying away from the polls in March even though it was the first general vote since the 2022 uprising. It is estimated only 11% of the population voted.

“There was little doubt that Vladimir Putin would be declared the winner in the March 17 presidential election, which secured his fifth term [in Russia],” the analyst added.

“Also, in the March 24 elections in Senegal, a young political outsider backed by an influential opposition figure won the presidential election in a surprise victory only 10 days after being released from jail.”

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The economy of an empire

Another political analyst, Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast, said one could not overstate the importance of the elections in America.

“The US has a very strong economy. The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, has said he will reduce funding going to countries like Ukraine and Israel, while the current president and Democratic candidate Joe Biden just recently signed a $95 billion war aid measure into law,” Breakfast said.

“The United States is like a world empire in its economy. Trump is determined to isolate it much like it was in the 1920s before the Second World War, when it was inward-looking and not trading much. If he were to win and that were to happen it would have a huge impact on our trade and businesses.”

ALSO READ: Trump’s legal battles fuel emotionally charged election year

ANC could lose its majority

Nyembezi said the African National Congress (ANC) could lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since democracy.

“Some candidates have demonstrated a character and temperament that render them utterly unfit for a repeat investment of our votes in them,” he said.

“As elected representatives, they wielded power carelessly and often cruelly, putting their egos, greed, and personal needs above the country’s interests.

“These individuals’ years in office have damaged the institution of government and the nation.

“They squandered public funds and deepened existing divisions among South Africans, leaving the country dangerously polarised; they so demeaned public discourse that many South Africans have become inured to lies, deceit and personal enrichment at the highest levels of leadership.”

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‘Wolves in sheepskin’

He said in the aftermath of the assault on South Africa’s democracy, it was instructive to realise that some candidates will be “wolves in sheepskin plotting to use electoral support as a licence to continue looting public funds.”

“Democracy in South Africa is more robust with a formidable multiparty and possibly a broad spectrum of coalitions to keep a diversity of thought alive on essential questions, such as the nation’s approaches to corruption, immigration, job creation, education, safety and security and fiscal responsibility.

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