Fourth wave ‘may be turning’ in Gauteng, says experts

With President Cyril Ramaphosa isolating after testing positive for Covid on Sunday and new cases remaining relatively high, it is still unclear when the nation will be updated on the president’s meeting with the National Coronavirus Command Council.

Senior researcher at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Ridhwaan Suliman said in a tweet the fourth wave in Gauteng might be turning.

“Early indications that confirmed #Covid cases and #omicron wave in Gauteng may have reached a peak! Don’t have latest provincial test numbers, but based on previous waves’ trajectories, this looks promising.”

This was after new daily infections surpassed the 20 000 mark last Thursday when 22 391 new cases were recorded.

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Health Minister Joe Phaahla in an interview on eNCA said although the country has passed the 20 000 new cases mark, most of the patients who were admitted to hospitals showed mild illnesses.

“What is comforting is even though the number of admissions have risen since September, most of the patients stayed for shorter periods so there is a promise that it might not be as bad as we all feared, even though the rising
numbers remain a dark cloud,” he said.

Epidemiologist Dr Jo Barnes said a peak did not always mean the wave was over. “The peak is just the top, the day or days with the most cases reported for the past 24 hours.

“The drop-off is not sudden; the wave does not disappear dramatically after the top is reached,” she said.

Director of the Office of Aids and TB Research at the South African Medical Research Council Prof Fareed Abdullah said he was not aware of any plans to restrict alcohol.

“My own view is that South Africa has a long-standing serious problem with a culture of very heavy drinking among a large proportion of the population.

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“Well over half of drinkers drink excessively and this is what needs to be addressed more holistically through a range of interventions.”

Barnes said the omicron variant was infectious, so the movement of people and contact between them were the main drivers of its spread.

“The distribution of cases and the increases depend to some extent on how much mixing and in and out movement into each province happens and where those persons on the move come from,” she said.

– asandam@citizen.co.za