Eswatini unrest: Writing on the wall for King Mswati III

South Africa could see an influx of people from across eSwatini should the ongoing pro-democracy protests in the tiny kingdom continue, and if the police crack down harshly on the protesters.

Violent protests, which began slowly over the past months, escalated into full-blown riots this week with property and state facilities being set on fired by angry youths. At least one person was killed and scores injured as police cracked down, including using live ammunition against protesters. But some put the death toll higher.

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Experts said it would be difficult for the protesters to remove King Mswati III, whose power was entrenched in the country’s governance institutions.

Mswati III, Africa’s only remaining absolute monarch, has a lot to lose if he were to be ousted via the current street protests. International affairs expert Prof Siphamandla Zondi said the protests might lend momentum to the long drawn-out struggle for democratic reform in Swaziland and limit Mswati’s monarchical power.

“But it is unlikely to bring the monarchy down yet. It is well entrenched and institutionalised and possesses crude power of the state to suppress this uprising.

“But the signals have been in a step toward some national consensus on the future state system,” Zondi said. The king has absolute power over the three spheres of the state: the executive, legislature and the judiciary and Cabinet ministers are appointed mainly within the Swazi royal family.

The monarch has not restored freedom of political activities since his late father King Sobhuza II banned political parties in 1973 through a proclamation. But Zondi said the protests should cause the king to worry about his future and perhaps to start negotiations.

Although he saw this as unlikely because the king and the government saw the revolters’ actions as illegitimate.

“There is no connection between the eSwatini situation and the rumblings around the Ngonyama Trust,” he added.

Another political and international relations analyst Dr Jan Venter from North-West University said people all over Africa were now starting to refuse to tolerate autocrats, especially expensive ones like in eSwatini, but he said it was unlikely Mswati would abdicate.

“We don’t have a tradition in Africa of leaders giving up power, instead they cling to power. “But people are not willing to tolerate autocratic rule and that is a trend in the world,” Venter said.

But if the situation in eSwatini deteriorated, it would affect South Africa as there would be an influx of refugees which the country could not accommodate.

More refugees would destabilise SA and become a burden on its public services. Venter foresaw no immediate uprising over land in SA inspired by the situation in eSwatini for some time, until a clear picture emerged regarding the land issue, perhaps in five years.

“There may be a lot of violent uprisings if the land issue is not resolved.

“It depends on economic growth because if there is positive economic growth and people are getting jobs, they get positive but if the growth is negative and there are no jobs they become negative,” Venter said.

Human rights body Amnesty International (AI) condemned the police brutality in eSwatini. AI’s director for east and southern Africa Deprose Muchena called on authorities to respect the rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association.

“The protests unfolding across Eswatini are a result of years of denial of political, economic and social rights. “Defending human rights and expressing critical views have been criminalised, and authorities have systematically crushed freedom of expression, association and peaceful assembly,” Muchena said.

ericn@citizen.co.za